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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Buffalo New York 
341 am EDT Tuesday Oct 7 2008 


Synopsis... 
high pressure centered across our region this morning will drift 
slowly east to New England and the middle Atlantic coast by Wednesday 
evening. This will provide US with clear skies today and tonight. A 
trough of low pressure will approach our region from the west during 
the day Wednesday but any showers should hold off until later in the 
afternoon for areas west of the Genesee Valley. Temperatures will 
finally warm to above normal readings for the first time this month. 
The trough is expected to move across our region Wednesday night and 
early Thursday followed by high pressure and what looks to be fair 
and mild weather through the weekend. 


&& 


Near term /through tonight/... 
the combination of clear skies and light winds has already allowed 
temperatures to drop to the middle 30s at many inland locations early 
this morning with even lower 30s with a few upper 20s across the 
colder interior valleys of the southern tier. Will maintain the 
current frost advisory and freeze warnings from the evening shift 
until 8 am. The only areas that may escape any frost will be areas 
right alng the Lake Erie shore and a few spots along the South Shore 
of Lake Ontario from Rochester west. 


After a cold start this morning, today will be a beautiful, sunny 
fall day with light winds as high pressure crests across the region. 
850 temperatures will rebound this afternoon to +7c which shld allow temperatures 
to get to near seasonal norms in the lower 60s with upper 50s across 
the north country. 


Tonight, high pressure over the area will slide to the east 
overnight. The night shld start out clear but there will be an 
increase in upper level cloudiness over areas west of the Genesee 
Valley after midnight. This shld help to keep temperatures from dropping to 
as low as Tuesday mrngs lows, espcly form the Genesee Valley west. 
Frost shld be more spotty over interior sections of the southern 
tier and Genesee Valley but further to the east, where skies shld 
remain mainly clear, areas of frost can be expected again across 
eastern portions of The Finger lks, with a more widespread frost again 
across areas from the Tug Hill northward over the north country. 


Will hold off on any new frost/freeze headlines for tonight as some, if 
not a good portion of the region, will have an end to their growing 
season from this mornings frost/freeze. Will keep mention of frost 
in worded portion of the forecast though. Temperatures shld range from the upper 
30s to middle 40s in the west with some middle 30s over portions of the 
eastern Finger Lakes and lower 30s across the north country. 


&& 


Short term /Wednesday through Thursday/... 
this period will be the only real tough part of the forecast as a 
short wave moves northeast from the central Great Lakes. It will 
push a surface trough across our region Wednesday night and early 
Thursday. The challenge at this time will be the beginning time of 
the threat of showers. Latest model runs bring it to the western 
counties and the Genesee Valley later Wednesday afternoon. At this 
time we will depart a little from continuity and bring chance probability of precipitation 
in earlier...starting it in areas west of the Genesee Valley during 
the afternoon. The best chance of precipitation will be Wednesday 
night as the nose of the 850 jet moves across the region along with 
precipitable water values as high as 1.25 to 1.50 inches...about 2 
Standard deviations above normal for this time of year. We will go 
with likely probability of precipitation for Wednesday night. 


The projected soundings dry out from west to east quickly Thursday 
as the short wave moves east along with the 850 jet. We will keep 
chance probability of precipitation in for awhile but only for areas east of the Genesee 
Valley and only for part of the morning. This is faster than 
continuity. Looks like clearing from west to east later in the day. 


&& 


Long term /Thursday night through Monday/... 
high pressure will build into the area Thursday night and Friday. 
This looks to be a fair weather period. There is still some 
uncertainty during the long weekend but the differences in the GFS 
and European model (ecmwf) are not as large as earlier. The 00z GFS is a little 
closer to the 12z run of the European model (ecmwf) from Monday. This period does 
look to favor the potential for much warmer than normal temperatures 
with sufficient height rises and a southwest flow aloft pushing 850 
mb temperatures above plus 10c for a good portion of the period. 


&& 


Aviation /08z Tuesday through Saturday/... 
surface high pressure will settle over the forecast area through the taf 
period and bring generally clear skies with winds under 10 kts. There 
could be some patchy fog across southern tier valleys in the predawn 
hours but don't expect much in the way of any visibility restrictions. 
A few high clouds will begin to advance into western New York from 
the southwest ahead of a trough across the Mississippi Valley this 
evening. 


Outlook... 
Wednesday through Saturday...primarily VFR with the exception of 
late Wednesday afternoon and night through early Thursday where 
we will have showers producing localized MVFR conditions late Wednesday 
afternoon in the west and Wednesday night across the rest of the forecast 
area. 


&& 


Marine... 
winds will be light today with the surface high cresting over the 
region. Southwest winds will pick up ahead of an approaching cold 
front late Wednesday and Wednesday evening...then turn westerly 
behind it early Thursday. Small craft conditions will be possible 
mainly on Lake Erie Wednesday night. 


&& 


Buf watches/warnings/advisories... 
New York...freeze warning until 8 am EDT this morning for nyz006>008-012- 
019>021-085. 
Frost advisory until 8 am EDT this morning for nyz001>005-010- 
011-013-014. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Synopsis...Sage 
near term...jjp 
short term...Sage 
long term...Sage/tma 
aviation...jjp 
marine...Sage