441 
fxus61 kbgm 070546 
afdbgm 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Binghamton New York 
146 am EDT Tuesday Oct 7 2008 


Synopsis... 
Canadian high pressure will bring clear skies and cold temperatures 
to the region tonight. Frost advisories and freeze warnings have 
been posted. Sunny weather will prevail on Tuesday with high 
pressure in control. Clouds will be on the increase 
Wednesday...in advance of an approaching frontal system. This 
front will bring a chance of showers on Wednesday night and 
Thursday. 


&& 


Near term /through today/... 
only minor changes so far with grids on track. Skies clearing 
while winds die. Temperatures will tumble tonight as high pressure 
just to the north settles in Tuesday. 


Previous discussion... 
sky clear to prevail tonight...no changes were needed for previous issued 
frost/freeze headlines. Expect growing season to end for much of the 
forecast area tonight. Regression stats based on MOS values suggest mins 
into the u20s across portions of the Catskills and susq region and western 
Mohawk Valley. 


&& 


Short term /tonight through Thursday night/... 
high pressure parked over the forecast area on Tuesday. Profiles not 
supportive of cumulus dvlplmnt. Mainly clear skies into Tuesday night but 
we'll see the advance of an upper deck towards the region by Wednesday 
morning...overspreading the forecast area during the afternoon. NAM a bit 
faster bringing in the clouds and precipitation as compared to the 
GFS...think the NAM sln is plausible...especially since trend has been 
to speed up this wave over the past few days. Also some support 
from the 12z UKMET and ooz Euro for the faster sln. Given 
uncertainty we went with chance probability of precipitation Wednesday night/Thursday all areas. Blended 
MOS for temperatures which looked rsnbl. 


&& 


Long term /Friday through Monday/... 
uncertainty remains between GFS and Euro solutions for this 
weekend. The GFS eastern vortex is now well south of its prior 
forecast position, diminishing the precipitation potential through early 
Saturday. GFS phases out this vortex over the southeastern coastal 
waters through late Sunday. 


Will lean toward the more consistent Euro solution and make minor 
adjustments to previous package. 


&& 


Aviation /06z Tuesday through Saturday/... 
dense fog will cause IFR restrictions at the Elm terminal this 
morning. The fog will break up and lift between 13z and 14z. 


VFR conditions are expected otherwise, with northwesterly winds 
developing at 7 to 12 knots this afternoon. 




Outlook /Tuesday night through Saturday/... 
Wednesday...VFR. Possible more morning vlifr radiation fog at 
kelm. 
Wednesday night to Thursday evening...VFR/MVFR. Showers 
possible. 
Friday...VFR. 
Saturday...VFR. 


&& 


Bgm watches/warnings/advisories... 
PA...freeze warning until 9 am EDT this morning for paz038>040-043- 
044-047-048-072. 
New York...freeze warning until 9 am EDT this morning for nyz009-015- 
022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062. 
Frost advisory until 9 am EDT this morning for nyz016>018. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...tac 
near term...tac 
short term... 
long term...djp 
aviation...djp