700 
fxus61 Kiln 061950 
afdiln 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio 
350 PM EDT Sat Sep 6 2008 


Synopsis... 
a weak upper-level shortwave will track across the Great Lakes 
overnight and early Sunday. High pressure over the Central Plains 
will then build east into the Ohio Valley through Monday. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 am Sunday morning/... 
scattered clouds will continue to thin out from northwest to 
southeast this evening as daytime heating subsides and drier air 
filters in from the north. Will see increasing clouds across the 
northern County Warning Area late as a shortwave tracks across the Great Lakes. 
Mostly went toward cool end of guidance with mostly clear skies 
and a dry airmass in place. 


&& 


Short term /6 am Sunday morning through Monday night/... 
introduced slight chance probability of precipitation to the northern County Warning Area Sunday morning 
as shortwave tracks across Northern Ohio. Airmass will be dry and 
upper wave will move much too fast to sufficiently saturate the 
atmosphere...so think only slight chance probability of precipitation will suffice for 
now. High pressure will be quick to build in behind this feature 
by Sunday afternoon. Trended toward cooler met numbers for highs 
given the degree of low level cold air advection which is forecast through the 
day Sunday. Next system of interest will approach from the west 
late Monday as a more significant upper wave moves into the 
western Great Lakes...and a cold front moves into Indiana. Models 
seems to be trending slower with this system...so slowed down the 
onset of probability of precipitation slightly late Monday night. 


&& 


Long term /Tuesday through Saturday/... 
cold front forecast to push through the area on Tuesday. As it 
does...showers and thunderstorms will spread east through early 
afternoon. However...with best upper level support remaining to our 
north and timing of cold front favoring better diurnal development 
mainly east of our area...will keep probability of precipitation in the 30-40 percent range. 
GFS showing some pretty good cold air advection on back side of front for this time 
of year. Will not jump completely on this...but will keep temperatures on 
the cool side for Tuesday...especially across the northwest where 
cold air advection will be first to arrive. 


High pressure will then build into the region through the middle 
part of the week. This will lead to dry conditions and a gradual 
warming trend through Thursday. Next short wave will then push 
into the area Thursday night and Friday...bringing the next chance 
for precipitation. Will stick pretty close to guidance temperatures through 
the latter part of the long term. 


&& 


Aviation /20z Saturday through Thursday/... 
diurnal cumulus and winds gusting at times to 15-20kts can be expected 
this afternoon with VFR conditions across the terminals. High 
pressure will build into the region over the forecast period...with 
skies clearing and winds near calm after sunset. Luk could see a 
period of River Valley fog with MVFR visibilities dropping to IFR briefly 
during the pre- dawn hours. Otherwise...a broken layer of ac will build 
in after 6z. 


Outlook...showers and thunderstorms are possible Monday night 
into Tuesday. 


&& 


Iln watches/warnings/advisories... 
Ohio...none. 
Kentucky...none. 
In...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...hawblitzel 
near term...hawblitzel 
short term...hawblitzel 
long term...jgl 
aviation...woodrum