059 
fxus61 kcle 070738 
afdcle 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Cleveland Ohio 
338 am EDT Tuesday Oct 7 2008 


Synopsis... 
high pressure centered over the eastern Great Lakes will drift 
southeast to the middle Atlantic coast by Wednesday morning. A cold 
front will move across the area Wednesday night. High pressure 
will then start to build back into the region on Thursday. 


&& 


Near term /through today/... 
high pressure over the eastern lakes drifts little southeast 
through the day. Just high clouds over western areas early this 
morning. Narrow upper level ridge just to the west drift east 
into the region today allowing for some middle and high clouds to 
spread in. Mainly partly cloudy skies over western areas while 
east should be mostly sunny. Thought mav guidance was a little too 
warm at most locations. Highs should range from the lower 60s east 
to the upper 60s west. 


&& 


Short term /tonight through Friday night/... 
surface ridge moves to Middle Atlantic States overnight while the 
upper ridge shifts just to the east of the area by Wednesday morning. 
Upper level trough and cold front begin to approach western areas 
overnight...allowing for a chance of showers by Wednesday morning 
over western areas. Cold front moves across the area Wednesday 
night. Upper level low closes off over the Tennessee Valley/Gulf 
Coast states by Wednesday evening...though northern stream short wave 
moves across the area. Believe showers/rain should still become 
quite widespread across the area by late Wednesday morning/early 
afternoon. Raised probability of precipitation to categorical over much of Ohio Wednesday 
afternoon with likely probability of precipitation over western Pennsylvania. Showers 
should come to end over most of the area Wednesday night with just 
a chance of showers Thursday morning in the east. Did not mention 
any thunderstorms at this time. Storm Prediction Center does not have the area in 
general thunderstorms and shref guidance for thunderstorm was low. 
High pressure starts to build in on Thursday and should have fair 
weather then through Friday night. 


&& 


Long term /Saturday through Monday/... 
continue to trend with the European model for the 
extended...although the differences between the 00z GFS and Euro 
models diminish toward the weekend. Overall it appears that a dry 
weekend is still in store for the region and I will keep probability of precipitation to a 
minimum Saturday through Monday. The big debate this morning is 
temperatures...the GFS MOS/mex temperatures Saturday through Monday are 
hinting at quite a warmup...about 10 degrees above climatological 
normals for middle October. While I do think it will warm up...I am 
hesitant to forecast that far above climatology 5-7 days in 
advance. The Euro solutions looks more reasonable...still above 
normal but within the scope of reason. Kept previous temperatures 
virtually unchanged with highs in the lower 70s...lows around 50. 


&& 


Aviation /06z Tuesday through Saturday/... 
wide swath of cloud cover associated with low pressure over Missouri now 
moving toward the Ohio Valley but only some high clouds across the 
western terminals as of 05z. Winds ahead of the low are out of the 
east...generally 5-10kts and I expect winds to remain as such 
through the day today. Clouds will gradually increase through the 
day but remain VFR at all sites. Precipitation should also hold off at 
all taf sites until after the end of the forecast period. May need 
to throw in a mention of light rain at tol/fdy with the morning 
12z taf issuance but not with this package. 


Outlook...low pressure and associated surface trough will move 
through the lower Great Lakes region on Wednesday with MVFR 
conditions possible at all sites within the heaviest showers. 
Conditions should improve on Thursday and remain VFR through the 
weekend. Some MVFR or lower morning fog/haze possible at all sites 
Thursday morning especially where rain ends up occurring. 


&& 


Marine... 
conditions on the lake today could be a bit choppy on the west end 
with northeasterly winds funneling down the long axis of the 
lake...but winds should take on more of a southeasterly component as 
we go through the day and I do not think small craft conditions will 
be an issue today. Low pressure and attendant cold front move 
through the area Wednesday night...winds probably close to Small Craft Advisory 
criteria late Wednesday night but still too early for any sort of 
advisory. High pressure builds in fairly quickly Thursday and the 
lake should quiet down shortly thereafter. Quiet conditions will 
prevail into the weekend. 




&& 


Cle watches/warnings/advisories... 
Ohio...frost advisory until 9 am EDT this morning for ohz014-023-033. 
PA...frost advisory until 9 am EDT this morning for paz002-003. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...randel 
near term...randel 
short term...randel 
long term...leins 
aviation...leins 
marine...Adams/leins