725 
fxus61 kpbz 070733 
afdpbz 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 
333 am EDT Tuesday Oct 7 2008 


Synopsis... 


High pressure will continue over the region through Wednesday 
morning. A low pressure system will begin to affect the region 
from the west beginning Wednesday afternoon. High pressure will 
build back in for the weekend. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... 


After some morning frost...temperatures will moderate today under 
high pressure. Only expecting passing cirrus today...as seen in infrared 
loop. Readings in the middle to upper 60s will be common this afternoon. 


&& 


Short term /6 PM this evening through Thursday/... 


A low pressure system will approach from the west overnight into 
Wednesday with a gradual increase in cloud cover. Precipitation will 
begin over the region by Wednesday afternoon. The system splits up 
somewhat as it encounters the eastern ridge...limiting the 
coverage and duration of the precipitation. By Thursday afternoon...much of the 
precipitation will be past. 


&& 


Long term /Thursday night through Monday/... 
long term forecast is generally one of persistence as confidence 
in a decisive solution to the forecast is minimal. For now, will 
assume that projected cutoff low over the southeastern U.S. Will 
stay to the south as per European model solution...leaving a ridge 
of high pressure with a dry/warm weekend over the upper Ohio 
Valley following passage of the Thursday/Friday front. 


&& 


Aviation /08z Tuesday through Saturday/... 


VFR conditions will prevail into Wednesday as high pressure pushes 
to the east today. Think any fog that develops this morning will be 
light in nature and limited to the immediate river valleys...thus 
will keep br out of the terminals. Low pressure will approach from 
the southwest by Wednesday...with cloud cover increasing by late 
Tuesday night...and scattered showers entering the region Wednesday 
afternoon...lingering into Thursday. Expect areas of MVFR associated with 
the showers. High pressure/area wide VFR is prognosticated to return Friday 
into the weekend. 


&& 


Pbz watches/warnings/advisories... 
Maryland...none. 
Ohio...none. 
PA...frost advisory until 9 am EDT this morning for paz007>009- 
013>016-022-023-030-032. 
WV...none. 


&& 


$$