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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Norman OK 
933 PM CDT Monday Oct 6 2008 


Update... 
cold front currently from north of Enid south-southwest to near fdr and f05/Vernon 
Texas... with pre-frontal boundary indicated on mesonet from just northwest 
of okc S into Clay Colorado Texas. Storms that were in SW OK earlier have 
built SW along the lead boundary into North Texas... and new storms are 
lining up along the front in ncentral OK. Good chance of 
additional storms building south-southwest along the front and affecting 
ncentral/central OK later tonight. Front should clear much of the 
west-northwest 1/2 of the County Warning Area by 06z and all but our southeast zones by around 09z. 
Precipitation chances will diminish with frontal passage. Updated pop/weather grids 
reflect this. Once again we will re-run the zone forecast product formattter around 
midnight to take car of any temporal wording. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 256 PM CDT Monday Oct 6 2008/ 


Discussion... 
afternoon convection will continue into the evening hours along and east of 
surface front across mainly central and eastern sections of the area. By 
later tonight as upper low shifts to our northeast... convection will 
gradually pull east of the area as well. This should end up 
producing some much needed rain at most locales before ending. For 
Tuesday... other than a few lingering showers possible in the east... 
the day should be dry... but will be a little windy on back side of 
system. 


Much of the remainder of the week looks fairly quiet as next system 
takes shape across the west. Will follow European model (ecmwf) as it continue to show 
more consistency from run to run... plus latest NAM and to some 
extent GFS are coming more in-line with amplifying wave closer to 
West Coast by late in the week. This will result in delay in next 
surface frontal passage until late in the weekend or early next week 
keeping temperatures well above MOS guidance numbers for latter periods. 
Also it appears better chance of precipitation may hold off until sun or 
Monday... will keep low probability of precipitation over the weekend for possibility of warm air advection 
setting up ahead of main system. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Oklahoma City OK 56 75 51 80 / 50 0 0 0 
Hobart OK 52 78 52 83 / 20 0 0 0 
Wichita Falls Texas 57 82 52 85 / 20 0 0 0 
gage OK 49 77 45 83 / 10 0 0 0 
Ponca City OK 54 74 48 79 / 80 10 0 0 
Durant OK 60 74 52 83 / 80 10 0 0 


&& 


Oun watches/warnings/advisories... 
OK...none. 
Texas...none. 
&& 


$$ 


24/03