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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Norman OK 
848 PM CST Tuesday Dec 2 2008 


Update... 
cold front moving through Nebraska this evening still on track to 
reach far northwest Oklahoma by morning. Moderate south winds 
continuing overnight will help to hold temperatures up despite 
relatively low dewpoints. Current forecast appears generally on track 
with this trend although bumped up lows slightly in those areas 
where observed cooling rate is a little slower than expected and the 
winds may remain somewhat higher. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 543 PM CST Tuesday Dec 2 2008/ 


Aviation... 
low level jet will keep winds gusty overnight ahead of a strong cold 
front. Front is expected to enter northwest Oklahoma between 3 and 
4 am and then across okc/oun/law/near Special Weather Statement by 9 am Wednesday. 
Strong cold air advection...especially across northwest Oklahoma will 
likely result in wind gusts over 40 kts. Marginal mfr ceiling will 
develop a few hours behind the front. 


Previous discussion... /issued 234 PM CST Tuesday Dec 2 2008/ 


Discussion... 
gusty southerly winds have developed across portions of the forecast area 
today. The breezy southerly winds will likely continue overnight in some 
locations. A cold front will then move through the area Wednesday. 
The front is expected to move into far northwest OK early Wednesday 
morning and through most of the forecast area by mid-day. This front will bring 
in cooler air and strong northerly winds. Sustained wind speeds of 
around 30 miles per hour and wind gusts over 40 miles per hour will be possible and a Wind 
Advisory will be likely. However... will hold off on issuing 
advisory at this time and let later shifts refine area need for 
advisory. A shortwave will also move across the area Wednesday. This 
disturbance combined with the front may provide enough lift to 
squeeze out some light precipitation over northern and eastern 
portions of the County Warning Area. Light rain or snow will be possible across 
northern OK while light rain will be possible in the rest of the 
area. GFS guidance seemed a bit warm for highs Wednesday and lows 
Wednesday night so used met guidance. Also used NAM three hourly 
temperatures and winds to create hourly temperature grids and define the timing of 
the cold front in the winds. 


Cooler temperatures will continue through the rest of the work 
week... with a small warm up expected over the weekend. A weak front 
will move through the area Saturday with very little affect on the 
temperatures. Models show another system moving through the region 
early next week with another cold front moving across the area. This 
system will bring another chance for precipitation to parts of the 
forecast area. Did not make any changes to the extended. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Oklahoma City OK 42 50 24 44 / 10 10 0 0 
Hobart OK 42 49 24 46 / 0 10 0 0 
Wichita Falls Texas 50 56 27 51 / 10 10 0 0 
gage OK 34 41 20 36 / 10 20 0 0 
Ponca City OK 39 46 22 42 / 10 20 0 10 
Durant OK 47 59 32 51 / 10 20 10 0 


&& 


Oun watches/warnings/advisories... 
OK...none. 
Texas...none. 
&& 


$$ 


32/06