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fxus64 koun 301009 
afdoun 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Norman OK 
509 am CDT Sat Aug 30 2008 


Discussion... 
through the first part of the morning...expect showers and 
scattered thunderstorms to affect far north-central Oklahoma... 
with isolated or scattered activity possible southward toward the 
Hughes County area as outflow sinks southward. 


Synoptic boundary difficult to discern this morning...masked by 
yesterdays and overnight convective clusters. Best guess based on 
pressure and moisture fields puts weak boundary dividing Oklahoma 
nearly in half...extending from west-central portions of Oklahoma 
east-southeastward into central Arkansas. Little overall movement 
expected today...outside of the boundary becoming a little more 
northwest-to-southeast oriented...as southerly flow increases over 
far western sections of forecast area and points farther west. 


By afternoon...subtle boundaries along with mentioned outflow 
boundary from current activity...will be a possible focusing 
mechanisms in moist/low-cin environment. As southerly flow 
increases and deepens...elevated convergence axis forecasted to 
develop over western Oklahoma and western North Texas...and shift 
eastward into central portions of Oklahoma late afternoon/early 
evening. GFS has had this signal for the last 4 runs and the WRF 
has now caught on to this possibility. This trend will need to be 
monitored later today...as marginal/severe wind gusts again a 
possibility...although cape should be slightly less today 
compared to yesterday. Any storms that get going will likely be 
slow moving...so excessive rainfall will also be a concern. 


As far as Gustav...we will still side closer to ecm solution than 
the GFS. Compared to tropical models...along with NHC/HPC 
forecasts... GFS still an outlier. Will thus modify mainly probability of precipitation/winds 
in the Tuesday through Wednesday time frame. Frontal passage late Tuesday 
still looks good with both GFS/ecm. Latest ecm is taking greater 
impacts of Gustav on a little more eastward track over arklatex 
region as opposed to directly over Oklahoma...but with frontal 
boundary in vicinity...enhancement of rainfall may still occur. 
Both GFS and ecm also indicating another cold front toward next 
Friday-Saturday...with substantial cool down likely if it verifies. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Oklahoma City OK 90 70 91 70 / 30 40 10 10 
Hobart OK 90 70 92 71 / 40 40 10 10 
Wichita Falls Texas 93 72 94 72 / 40 30 10 10 
gage OK 90 68 90 69 / 40 40 10 10 
Ponca City OK 89 69 90 71 / 60 30 10 10 
Durant OK 93 71 93 70 / 30 30 10 10 


&& 


Oun watches/warnings/advisories... 
OK...none. 
Texas...none. 
&& 


$$ 


06/11