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fxus61 kpbz 160133 
afdpbz 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 
933 PM EDT Wednesday Oct 15 2008 


Synopsis... 
a cold front will cross the region late tonight and Thursday morning 
with rain showers. Dry and cooler conditions will prevail for the 
weekend. 


&& 


Near term /through Thursday/... 
forecast update to adjust precipitation and convection overnight. Cold 
front will move through our area overnight and Thursday morning. 
The greatest upper support will reside across Northern 
Ohio/northwest PA. Precipitation will begin to diminish Thursday afternoon 
as the cold front exits to the east. Precipitation amounts will range 
from one third to one half inch across northwest PA...to around a 
quarter inch across north central WV/western Maryland. Lows tonight will 
remain mild under thick cloud cover...with 50s for most areas. 
Temperatures Thursday will move little with clouds and precipitation 
early...and will begin to slowly fall in the afternoon in the wake of 
the front. 


&& 


Short term /Thursday night through Saturday/... 
residual precipitation across the ridges will end Thursday evening as the 
front exits. The parent upper low will eject into the Canadian 
Maritimes Friday...with weak troughing crossing the area. Given 
the upper low well to the north...and surface high pressure beginning 
to nose in...deep layer moisture will be limited...so will keep 
conditions dry Friday...with partly to mostly cloudy conditions 
prevailing. Under cold advection...highs Friday will about 10 degrees 
below normal...with lower to middle 50s for most areas. 


High pressure will begin to intensify Saturday with clouds decreasing 
and cool conditions continuing. 


&& 


Long term /Saturday night through Wednesday/... 
surface high pressure will drift southward over the southeastern 
states by Sunday. Dry conditions will continue Sunday and 
temperatures should recover to near normal by Sunday afternoon 
into Monday. 


The next cold front is forecast to push across the forecast area 
during Monday bringing scattered showers. Cooler air will return 
behind system for Tuesday and Wednesday. 


&& 


Aviation /02z Thursday through Monday/... 
a cold front will move through the upper Ohio Valley overnight and 
Thursday morning. Expect prevailing MVFR conditions in showers 
and fog along and behind the front with occasional IFR 
restrictions. 


High pressure will build in starting Thursday night and will remain 
over the weekend. Generally VFR weather is forecast. 


The next front will push southeast across western PA Monday with 
possible MVFR restrictions in scattered showers. 


&& 


Pbz watches/warnings/advisories... 
Maryland...none. 
Ohio...none. 
PA...none. 
WV...none. 


&& 


$$