941 
fxus61 kcle 282343 
afdcle 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Cleveland Ohio 
743 PM EDT Thursday Aug 28 2008 


Synopsis... 
remnants of Fay will continue to move slowly eastward into PA and 
New York tonight. A cold front will approach western Ohio late tonight 
and move across Northern Ohio on Friday. Surface high pressure 
will build in behind the cold front and control through much of 
next week. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 am Friday morning/... 
did a quick update to account for leftover light rain and drizzle 
across the eastern counties...generally east of I-71. Activity is 
moving NE at 15 miles per hour and will clear the Cleveland Medina Akron 
Wooster area early this evening. Also updated Northwest Ohio to 
account for sunshine this evening as we should see some nice 
weather across the northwest counties during the evening hours. High 
clouds appear to be thin and will not really affect the weather 
until the sun sets through the veil of increasing high clouds. 


What remains of Fay will continue to slide eastward tonight. Still 
seeing some light showers over northeastern Ohio that will move 
into northwestern PA. Believe most of it will remain on the light 
side and will continue with areas of drizzle through the evening. 
Elsewhere there should be nothing falling from the sky at least 
through midnight. After midnight the cold front and associated 
trough will be close enough to warrant a mention of 
showers/thunderstorms for western Ohio. 


&& 


Short term /6 am Friday morning through Sunday night/... 
front with scattered thunderstorms should move across Northern 
Ohio on Friday. Believe it will be through the forecast area by 
evening with any showers/thunderstorms ending. Surface high 
pressure will then build in across the Great Lakes on Saturday. 
Clouds will linger the longest over northeast Ohio into northwest 
PA. Thickness will increase on Sunday as upper level high pressure 
builds overhead. This will warm temperatures on Sunday with a 
return to the 80s for the entire region. 


&& 


Long term /Monday through Thursday/... 
high pressure will shift east of the area Monday with south to 
southwest flow developing in the wake of the high. Fairly strong 
warm air advection will take place forcing temperatures well into 
the 80s for highs and lows generally in the 60s Monday through 
Wednesday. 


Airmass remains dry Monday through Tuesday. A cold front will 
approach from the west and bring another threat for showers and 
thunderstorms Wednesday night into Thursday. Another area of high 
pressure quickly follows the cold front and forces some weak cold 
air advection into the region. Will go with temperatures about 10 
degrees colder for highs on Thursday into Friday. Lows in the 50s. 


&& 


Aviation /23z Thursday through Tuesday/... 
clearing and VFR conditions made their way as far east as eastern 
Sandusky County and mnn but has since halted. Unfortunately 
locations to the east will have to wait much longer than 
originally thought for VFR weather. For western locations...mainly 
VFR with some MVFR visibility possible overnight. Low level moisture 
remains...with dewpoints in the 60s and longer nights...but 
advancing cloud cover from Midwest front will help keep it in 
check. Have slowed timing of front considerably due to current 
position and model projections. Removed the tempo ts out of the 
morning and went with just a few showers later in the morning. 
Precipitation chances are only 20 or 30 percent and have bad diurnal 
timing. Across the rest of the area...MVFR conditions will persist 
a good portion of the night. Have some IFR visibility developing to as 
conditions are very moist. IFR ceilings possible too if ceiling 
heights can can build down overnight. Slowed frontal timing here 
too...wind shift later and with a less than 50 percent chance of 
precipitation went the prob30 Route for shra/ts. Front will be weakening 
as it moves eastward with only the afternoon heating really 
helping it for cle/mfd east. 


Outlook...with slow frontal movement some MVFR still possible into 
Friday night. High pressure and VFR likely Sat through Tuesday. 


&& 


Marine... 
the period will be fairly quiet on Lake Erie with no headlines or 
advisories expected. Lingering sprinkles or drizzle on the eastern 
end of the lake should dissipate this evening. Then...S flow will 
develop on the lake overnight ahead of a weakening cold front. The 
front will work it's way east across the lake on Friday. There is a 
small threat for some showers ahead of this front...but again 
nothing significant expected. The flow will briefly become north 
tomorrow evening and waves will build in the nearshore waters. 
Expect waves to remain below small craft criteria. By Saturday am 
the flow will be fairly light as high pressure begins to build over 
the region. The high will then dominate the remainder of the 
Holiday weekend with mainly light and variable flow. 


&& 


Cle watches/warnings/advisories... 
Ohio...none. 
PA...none. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...Mullen 
near term...kosarik 
short term...Mullen 
long term...Lombardy 
aviation...oudeman 
marine...kubina