694 
fxus61 kcle 200723 
afdcle 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Cleveland Ohio 
323 am EDT Wednesday Aug 20 2008 


Synopsis... 
high pressure centered to the north of Lake Erie will move off the 
New Jersey coast by midday Thursday and then move little into 
Sunday. A weakening cold front will move southeast across the 
local area on Sunday. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... 
high pressure will dominate the weather today. Cool NE flow will 
persist today. Temperatures should be a few degrees warmer than Tuesday 
most areas...but still a little below normal. The airmass will 
remain very very dry so should see little if any cumulus today. 


&& 


Short term /6 PM this evening through Sunday night/... 
quiet weather will continue into the weekend. The surface high 
will slide east of the area on Thursday allowing warmer southerly 
winds to return. The local area will see a pretty good shot of 
warm air advection on Thursday which will push temperatures well into the 
80s for highs. Even warmer temperatures on Friday as 850 mb temperatures warm to 
plus 18 degree. Given how dry it is...western areas could flirt with 
90 degrees. Precipitation threat should hold off till at least Saturday. 
Decaying cold front should move across local area sometime on 
Sunday. Precipitation chances will increase as this feature approaches. 
Guidance temperatures most of period look reasonable. 


&& 


Long term /Monday through Tuesday/... 
both GFS and European model (ecmwf) showing cold front that moves through late in the 
weekend should be well east of the area by Monday morning with high 
pressure then build into the region. Will continue with dry forecast 
for Monday into Tuesday with the center of the high passing just 
north of the area. Should be rather pleasant through the period with 
temperatures near or just a little above normal during the day...middle 
70s to the lower 80s. 


&& 


Aviation /07z Wednesday through Sunday/... 
good VFR weather through the taf period. Believe airmass too dry 
for any morning fog and for any cumulus clouds to develop during 
the day. 


Outlook...VFR Thursday through Friday. High pressure will move 
east Thursday and a southerly flow will return. The next threat 
for showers and thunderstorms and non VFR conditions should hold 
off until Saturday as a frontal system slowly moves through 
Saturday and Sunday. 


&& 


Marine... 
east to NE flow today should subside somewhat. However still looking 
for the lake to be fairly choppy with waves in the 2 to 4 foot range 
just below Small Craft Advisory criteria. Lake May remain choppy 
next couple of days as high pressure moves slowly off to the east. 
Winds should veer around to the south Friday as high moves further 
east. Cold front to move across the lake on Sunday. 


&& 


Cle watches/warnings/advisories... 
Ohio...none. 
PA...none. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...kubina 
near term...kubina 
short term...kubina 
long term...randel 
aviation...randel 
marine...randel