091 
fxus61 kctp 282342 
afdctp 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service State College PA 
742 PM EDT Thursday Aug 28 2008 


Synopsis... 
rains from the remnants of old Tropical Storm Fay will gradually 
taper off to showers this evening and overnight. A cold front 
over the upper Mississippi Valley this morning will move east and 
cross the commonwealth Friday night and Saturday. Moderating 
temperatures will follow for the rest of the weekend as a large 
area of high pressure builds east across the region. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 am Friday morning/... 
the back edge of the rain seems to be creeping slowly into my far 
southwestern zones. Rainfall should continue to slowly dwindle in 
coverage into the evening hours as the best low level convergence 
gradually relaxes and slides east and north of the local area. 
Radar seems to be doing a pretty good job estimating 
rainfall...with amounts of 1 to 2 inches common over my far 
western counties from Clearfield south to The Laurels. This ended 
up matching yesterday's NAM projections best...though with only about 
1/2 as much rain as the model wanted to crank out. Overall it's 
been a beneficial rain as we have been very dry lately. 


The overnight will stay damp with the rain tapering to scattered 
showers and perhaps even some drizzle in some areas as we see 
little if any in the way of a dry push in the low levels and a 
continuation of weak troughing aloft. The cloud cover will keep 
temperatures from falling much so while we were well below normal today 
for high temperatures...the overnight lows will be closer to normal. 


&& 


Short term /6 am Friday morning through 6 PM Friday/... 
the nose of high pressure that has kept US chilly and dammed up 
today is forecast to stay anchored over the area Friday helping to 
keep US cloudy and unsettled with a few showers possible. We 
should have more of a southerly component to our low level flow 
so we should brighten up quite a bit more than we managed 
today...allowing highs to recover closer to seasonal norms. One 
issue that may need to be tweaked is whether there will be a 
chance for thunder tomorrow. Lifted indice's are forecast to erode close to 
zero...but middle level lapse rates stay pretty shallow so for now I 
chose scattered showers versus mentioning thunder. 


&& 


Long term /Friday night through Thursday/... 
unsettled weather will continue into Saturday...before a frontal 
boundary finally pushes the excess moisture off the East Coast by 
Saturday evening. 


Sunday through Thursday will see a return to warm and dry 
conds...as a ridge of hi pressure builds across the Middle-Atlantic 
States. 


A frontal boundary will approach PA from the northwest by late 
Thursday or Thursday night...accompanied by some clouds and 
slightly higher probability of precipitation. 


&& 


Aviation /00z Friday through Tuesday/... 
widespread MVFR/IFR in low ceilings...fog and lingering isolated showers 
continue to affect the region and will likely continue right 
through the overnight into Friday. Best conditions are over the 
susq valley where dry air is deeper and the rain has yet to 
saturate the air...but think even there ceiling/viz will deteriorate 
later this evening and tonight. The only terminal I kept above 
IFR tonight was MDT where it will remain the hardest part of the 
forecast area to moisten up. Otherwise I expect most areas to see 
ceilings tumble under 1000' overnight with visible in the 2-4 mile 
range for the most part. Locally dense fog can't be ruled 
out...especially over the ridges as we stay pretty socked in. 


Some improvement to MVFR seen in all areas Friday as southerly 
flow allows US to mix out a bit. We stay with low VFR or MVFR 
conditions until some time Saturday when a cold front should scour 
things out...probably lasting well into next week with fair 
weather. 


&& 


Ctp watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...lacorte 
near term...lacorte 
short term...lacorte 
long term...evanego 
aviation...lacorte/gartner