185 
fxca62 tjsj 021921 
afdsju 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service San Juan PR 
321 PM AST Tuesday Dec 2 2008 


Discussion...back side...or trailing edge of low level moisture 
convergence associated with Ely wave moving into S central Caribbean 
is just about to exit Puerto Rico at this time...with some clearing of 
low level moisture expected tonight. However strong cap at 10k feet...or 
h700...will continue to produce some stratification of shallow cumulus 
and will yield some cloudiness continuing across the local area 
overnight. A rather benign looking cloud band of cumulus and SC can be 
seen on satellite imagery moving into the vi at this time and will pass across 
the area overnight for isolated light showers...with middle level 
clouds leading to variable cloudiness. Blocking deep layered middle 
Atlantic troffing during the rest of the week will maintain a 
continuous flow of low to middle level northeasterly winds...and maintain the 
recent seasonable and fair weather pattern...with periodic passages 
of bands of cumulus/SC all capped off underneath a middle level ridge. 
Although fluctuations in wind direction and trajectory of shallow 
moisture will change throughout the next 5-7 days...little change 
in the appreciable weather is anticipated. 


&& 


Aviation...VFR conditions expected at all sites next 24 hours. 
Winds will be in the lower 20 knot range at tjbq until around 22z. 
No significant operational impacts expected. 


&& 


Marine...low level wind surge accompanying Ely wave across the east 
Caribbean past 24 hours is exiting all but west sections of local marine 
area and seas have already begun to respond. Regional buoys now in 
a subsiding trend and being dominated by 8 second east-northeast wind swell. 
Wwiii guidance was about one half foot or so high during the event 
based on available data. As such sca's will be dropped for all 
waters but the offshore Atlantic this evening...and then these 
offshore Atlantic waters Wednesday afternoon. Moderate winds and seas then 
expected for the next several days. Upper level pattern shift in 
the past week has led to a break from the Nov pattern of frequent 
and regular pulses of northwest-northerly swell into the region. No change in 
this current pattern seen till sun-Monday when a 1000mb low is 
forecast to move off NE coast of U.S. 


&& 


Parting comments...today Marks the end of an era for ME. I will 
be leaving the island of Puerto Rico in a few days after nearly 17 
years as a forecaster here at the National Weather Service San Juan. Family...and life 
responsibilities...call ME to Miami...and a new challenge at the 
NHC. I would like to take this opportunity to express my sincere thanks 
and appreciation to all those local interests whom I have come to 
know over these many years. Despite the current Economy...life is 
very good here in PR and the USVI... and I could not have enjoyed 
it more. Thanks to all for sharing your life and your islands with 
ME...and showing this Gringo what being truly blessed means. I 
plan to return and visit as frequently as possible...and play in my 
favorite waters. Saludos hermanos y Hermanas! 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
sju 72 84 73 82 / 30 30 20 20 
stt 74 83 74 81 / 10 30 20 30 


&& 


Sju watches/warnings/advisories... 
PR...none. 
Vi...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Stripling