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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Taunton Massachusetts 
749 am EDT Sat Aug 30 2008 


Synopsis... 
a cold front will cross southern New England this afternoon and 
evening. This should be followed by high pressure from Canada... 
providing dry and warm weather through most of next week. 


&& 


Near term /until 10 am this morning/... 
scattered showers moving across the east coastal Massachusetts waters 
this morning. Watching another batch of showers moving east-northeast 
from the vicinity of New York City. Have updated the forecast to 
account for these showers moving across the coastal waters...and 
perhaps southern Rhode Island and south coastal Massachusetts. May however...have been too 
quick to dissipate them. Thinking we will see a period of drier 
weather during the middle morning hours. 


Not expecting many thunderstorms...but did see one lightning strike 
in Long Island Sound. The middle levels of the atmosphere are quite cold 
for this time of year...so even with limited sunshine...cannot rule 
out at least isolated thunderstorms. 


&& 


Short term /10 am this morning through 6 PM Sunday/... 
from late morning through this afternoon...short range models 
continue to time approaching cold front through the region this 
afternoon and evening. Will bring back chance probability of precipitation into western 
Massachusetts/SW New Hampshire by 18z...then steadily move across region through the 
afternoon. Models have also remained consistent in tending to weaken 
the front as it moves across. Not a whole lot of moisture to work 
with...as well as weak dynamics. Do have decent lifted indices...on 
order of zero to -1...so will probably see some convection with this 
front. Still not expecting severe with it at this point. 


As for clouds...might see some breaks in middle layer clouds prior to 
the arrival of the precipitation...probably around midday. Noting some 
breaks over central and eastern New York state on the infrared satellite. For 
now...leaned toward the GFS MOS guidance which maximum temperatures in the middle 
70s to around 80 except around 70 on the cape and islands...but need 
to monitor in case more sun breaks out. 


Surf forecast...with higher east-NE swells still working across the 
waters from low pressure S of Nova Scotia...up to 4 feet...have mentioned 
moderate risk of rip currents on the east facing beaches on Cape Cod 
and Nantucket for today. Please see the surf forecast on the National Weather Service 
Taunton website for more details. 


Tonight...front continues steady trek off the coast this evening 
with rapid clearing behind. Have kept in low chance probability of precipitation over east 
Massachusetts/Cape Cod and the islands...then should push east by around midnight 
or so. 


Not really terribly cool behind this front...though 850 mb temperatures drop 
to 10-12c by 12z. Not a whole lot of mixing behind this front with 
weak pressure gradient. Model MOS guidance tending to hold temperatures up a 
bit overnight...which were generally accepted. 


Sunday...expect a spectacular day with mainly sunny skies and mild 
temperatures. Highs will run above the late August norms as high shifts 
across New York state. Appears a bit of downsloping taking place with north-northwest 
winds at 10-15 miles per hour. All model guidance suggests temperatures topping off in 
the Lower-Middle 80s except Outer Cape cod and Nantucket where readings 
will remain in the Lower-Middle 70s. 


&& 


Long term /Sunday night through Friday/... 
30/00z model suite is in excellent agreement through 00z Friday... 
then develop significant differences in their solutions. Used the 
model consensus as the basis for this forecast through Thursday given 
the excellent agreement. Thereafter...stayed closer to the European model (ecmwf) 
solution because the GFS solution looks unrealistic after that time. 
Cannot see why the GFS turns Tropical Storm Hanna north along the 
East Coast with a strong high pressure parked across the northeast 
and Middle Atlantic States. 


Middle level trough deepens across the western states...allowing middle 
level ridge to build across the east. The only fly in the ointment 
could be a persistent middle level cutoff low south of Nova Scotia. At 
this time...do not think this low will retrograde far enough west to 
be a concern. 


Overall a quiet period in store for southern New England. We may see 
a weak cold front approach from the north sometime Thursday into 
Friday. Do not think it will come too far south given the 
aforementioned high pressure. For now...will continue to bring an 
increase in clouds with no mention of precipitation. 


&& 


Aviation /12z Saturday through Wednesday/... 
this morning...mainly VFR ceilings...though area of showers moving 
through central and eastern Massachusetts/Rhode Island will lower to MVFR ceilings/visibilities in 
rainfall and leftover stratus. We expect these showers to be off the 
coast by middle morning. The leftover patchy fog and stratus will 
dissipate by around 14z. Beyond this...expect VFR ceilings at or above 4kft. 


This afternoon...approaching front with VFR-MVFR ceilings/visibilities in scattered 
showers/thunderstorms arriving around 18z over SW New Hampshire/west Massachusetts. Will move steadily 
across region through the remainder of the afternoon. 


Tonight...MVFR conditions will linger across east Massachusetts/Rhode Island this evening 
with scattered shwrs/tstms...pushing off the coast by around 04z. Becoming 
VFR all areas after this. 


Sunday...VFR. 


Outlook...Sunday night through Wednesday... 


Generally VFR through the period. Patchy MVFR/IFR is possible in 
early morning fog each day...especially in the Connecticut valley. 


&& 


Marine... 
today...as quickly as the east swells came up on the eastern 
waters...they subsided. Took the small craft down...though still 
note swells up to 4-5 feet at buoy 44008 southeast of Nantucket. Have kept 
seas up to 4 feet mainly in swells. 


S-SW winds picking up to 10-15 kts by this afternoon ahead of the 
approaching front. 


Tonight...SW winds around 15 knots with some gusts to 20 knots...then will 
shift to west-northwest after midnight. Still expecting seas up to 4 feet mainly 
on the eastern outer waters in swells. 


Sunday...northwest wind 10-15 kts with seas 3 feet or less. 


Outlook...Sunday night through Wednesday... 


Light winds and seas through most of this period. Low pressure 
lingering south of Nova Scotia may send 4 to 5 foot swells to the 
waters east of Cape Cod and Nantucket Monday...but the current 
forecast keeps the highest swells outside our forecast area. We 
will need to monitor the potential for rip currents Sunday and 
Monday along the Outer Cape and Nantucket from any southeast swell. 


&& 


Box watches/warnings/advisories... 
CT...none. 
Massachusetts...none. 
New Hampshire...none. 
Rhode Island...none. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...Belk 
near term...Belk/evt 
short term...Belk/evt 
long term...Belk 
aviation...Belk/evt 
marine...Belk/evt 

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