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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Taunton Massachusetts 
139 am EDT sun Sep 7 2008 


Synopsis... 
a Tropical Storm Warning continues for portions of southeast New 
England. Hanna will bring heavy rainfall and some flooding...as 
well as a period of strong winds. Warm...dry weather will follow for 
Sunday and Monday. On Tuesday...an approaching cold front may bring a 
period of showers and thunderstorms...then high pressure will return 
dry conditions for Wednesday and Thursday. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 am this morning/... 
a Tropical Storm Warning continues for the Rhode Island and Massachusetts coastal regions 
including the islands. Winds are also expected to reach tropical 
storm intensity as far northwest as a line from bdl to orh to lwm. 
In this area away from the coastline a Tropical Storm Wind Warning 
is in effect. 


Please see the latest Tropical Storm Hanna local statement 
/boshlsbox/ for additional details. 


The storm center of Hanna is expected to cross through Rhode Island and 
southeast Massachusetts during the 05z to 09z time frame. Rain associated with 
Hanna is already crossing through southern New England...and is 
expected to continue for most of tonight. Rain will be heavy at 
times...and a Flash Flood Watch continues for the area. Latest NAM 
and GFS indicate that heaviest rain within southern New England may 
occur in western Massachusetts into southern New Hampshire. Taking into account rains that 
fell earlier today in southeast Massachusetts and Rhode Island...total weekend rainfall 
throughout southern New England is expected to range from 3 to 6 
inches. Some isolated higher totals are possible. Please see the 
hydrology section for additional details. 


Another item of concern is the potential for isolated weak tornadoes. 
Tropical systems sometimes produce them on their northern and eastern 
sections of the storm where shear values become quite high. Based on 
our current track...the risk for this would be the coastal plain. 


&& 


Short term /6 am this morning through 6 PM Monday/... 
Hanna pulls rapidly northeast of the area Sunday morning...a few 
lingering showers early then dry conditions to follow. Decreasing 
clouds expected while winds continue to diminish...with partly to 
mostly sunny skies by afternoon. 


&& 


Long term /Monday night through Saturday/... 
did not spend much time looking at this portion of the forecast. 
Stayed fairly close to consensus blend of 06/12z GFS and 06/00z 
European model (ecmwf). Did see this timing is different from HPC forecast...so will 
likely change this portion of the forecast once we are through with 
Tropical Storm Hanna. 


Sunday night into Monday night...high pressure remains in control... 
then shifts off the coast Monday night. 


Tuesday and Tuesday night...an upper level trough and accompanying 
low pressure pull a cold front through southern New England late 
Tuesday into Tuesday night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will 
likely accompany this front as it moves through. High temperatures 
will be slightly above normal. 


Wednesday into Thursday night...high pressure builds back into the 
area behind the front. Dry...more autumn-like weather is expected... 
with high temperatures slightly below normal. This high pressure 
moves offshore Thursday night. 


Friday...a warm front approaches from the west. This far out...timing 
is definitely a question. 


Saturday...another cold front approaches from the northwest. Timing 
is a again a concern. 


&& 


Aviation /06z Sunday through Thursday/... 
06z tafs bring improving conditions to MVFR 09z-12z as Hanna tracks 
off east Massachusetts coast near Plymouth...then to VFR by 15z as low clouds scour 
out. 


Core of strongest winds heading off Cape Cod as of 0530z and winds 
will diminish as Hanna tracks across Rhode Island and southeast Massachusetts through 09z. Winds 
shift to north behind storm with 30kt gusts likely...then gradient will 
maintain 25kt gusts into early afternoon. 


Clear tonight with west winds 10kt or less. 


Outlook...Sunday night through Thursday 


Sunday night through Monday night...VFR. 


Tuesday and Tuesday night...mainly VFR...then MVFR in showers and 
thunderstorms as a front moves through southern New England late in 
the day and evening. 


Wednesday through Thursday...VFR. 


&& 


Marine... 
tonight...winds will rapidly intensify to tropical storm force during 
this evening. Sustained winds are expected to increase to 35 to 45 
kts...with the strongest winds along south coastal Massachusetts and 
Rhode Island...including Narragansett Bay. Wind gusts to 50 kts are 
expected...except gusts approaching 60 kts south coastal Massachusetts/Rhode Island 
including Narragansett Bay. 


Seas of 15 to 20 feet are anticipated in the outer coastal 
waters south of Montauk to Nantucket...with 8 to 10 feet seas on the 
waters near/east of stellwagen bank. 


Sunday...will start off with gale or near gale force wind 
gusts...then gradually diminish through the day. Seas will also gradually 
diminish over the course of the day. 


Outlook...Sunday night through Thursday... 




Sunday night into Monday...winds diminish below Small Craft Advisory 
criteria /25 knots/ by the end of the day Sunday. However...seas should 
still remain around 5 feet across the outer coastal waters through 
Monday afternoon. 


Tuesday...small craft criteria likely as upper level trough and cold 
front move through the waters....with increasing south to southwest 
winds. 


Wednesday and Thursday...winds and waves will remain below small 
craft criteria. 


&& 


Hydrology... 
issued Flood Warning for North Nashua River at Fitchburg where latest 
nerfc forecast brings river just over its 6.5 feet flood stage through 
daybreak. Other smaller rivers have shown sharp rises due to 
torrential rainfall...but are expected to remain within their banks. 
We continue to keep an eye on Pawtuxet River at Cranston Rhode Island where 
minor flooding is possible later today. 


Flood warnings also remain in effect for most of area for significant 
urban flooding. We anticipate these will be allowed to expire on 
schedule early this morning. Flood Watch will probably be allowed to 
expire as well since renewed flooding is not expected. 


&& 


Tides/coastal flooding... 
as of 135 am...high tide was occurring along S coast with a surge of 
1 to 1.5 feet per tide gages at Providence and Newport. This has 
actually dropped since 11 PM when we saw a 2 foot surge. This was 
largely driven by strong S winds which have since diminished with 
approach of Hanna. 


Coastal flooding is not expected along the eastern Massachusetts 
coast where 1 to possibly 2 feet of storm surge is expected. 


The times of high tide are as follows... 
Boston 516 am Sunday 
Nantucket 633 am Sunday 
Newport 127 am Sunday 
Providence 140 am Sunday 


&& 


Box watches/warnings/advisories... 
CT...Flash Flood Watch until 11 am EDT this morning for ctz002>004. 
Tropical Storm Wind Warning until 8 am EDT this morning for 
ctz002>004. 
Massachusetts...Flash Flood Watch until 11 am EDT this morning for maz002>024- 
026. 
Tropical Storm Warning for maz007-015-016-019>024. 
Tropical Storm Wind Warning until 8 am EDT this morning for 
maz005-006-012>014-017-018. 
New Hampshire...Flash Flood Watch until 11 am EDT this morning for nhz011-012- 
015. 
Rhode Island...Flash Flood Watch until 11 am EDT this morning for riz001>008. 
Tropical Storm Warning for riz002-004>008. 
Tropical Storm Wind Warning until 8 am EDT this morning for 
riz001-003. 
Marine...Tropical Storm Warning for anz230>237-250-254-255. 
&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...nmb 
near term...nmb 
short term...nmb 
long term...Belk 
aviation...jwd 
marine...Belk/nmb 
hydrology...jwd 
tides/coastal flooding...jwd 

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