802 
fxus61 kbox 070746 
afdbox 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Taunton Massachusetts 
346 am EDT Tuesday Oct 7 2008 


Synopsis... 
cool and dry high pressure will dominate through midweek. A warming 
trend will begin late in the week and continue into the weekend. It 
is highly uncertain whether or not a low pressure system tracks far 
enough north to bring US a period of rain Friday night and Saturday. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... 
high pressure has moved into southern New England...accompanied by a 
chilly airmass. Temperatures have dropped below freezing in 
northwestern Massachusetts and southwestern New Hampshire with middle 
to upper 30s elsewhere across the area. With clear skies remaining 
through sunrise...expect temperatures to drop a few more degrees. 
While temperatures in a few locations outside of the frost advisory 
have dropped below 36...after looking at mesonet data...these 
stations are fairly isolated...so will stick with a mention of 
patchy frost. Interior Valley locations will also experience patchy 
fog through the early morning hours. 


After sunrise...mostly clear skies will dominate the region and the 
patchy fog will burn off. 925mb temperatures will climb to around 8 to 9c 
which will allow high temperatures in the low to middle 60s. 


&& 


Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 PM Wednesday/... 
high pressure will continue to dominate through Wednesday. Clear 
skies and calm winds will again lead to chilly overnight 
temperatures. Frost advisories and freeze warnings will likely be 
necessary again overnight tonight for much of western Massachusetts 
and southwestern New Hampshire. Lows will be similar if not slightly cooler 
in these areas. Temperatures will be somewhat milder along the 
coast inwards toward the Worcester Hills. Wednesday will be another 
pleasant day with mostly sunny skies and temperatures getting into 
the middle to upper 60s. Towards the end of the day...a few high 
clouds could start to stream into the area ahead of an approaching 
shortwave. 


&& 


Long term /Wednesday night through Monday/... 
Wednesday... 
skies should start off mainly sunny in the morning and perhaps into 
middle afternoon. However...an approaching shortwave will lead to an increase 
in high clouds by late in the afternoon. Otherwise...it will be a 
beautiful day as warming middle level temperatures should allow highs 
to recover into the upper 60s to around 70. 


Wednesday night and Thursday... 
a decent middle level shortwave will move through the region Wednesday 
night into the first part of Thursday. Moisture will be 
lacking...but there may be enough forcing and middle level lift for a 
few hours of isolated to scattered showers. Models show the best 
chance for this will be in our western zones as well as north of the 
Massachusetts Pike. GFS model and MOS probability of precipitation appear too low when looking at 
other models as they all have some scattered light quantitative precipitation forecast. For now will 
run with 20 to 30 probability of precipitation from Wednesday night into Thursday 
afternoon. We certainly do not expect a widespread soaking 
rain...but more the potential for a period of scattered showers. As 
for low temperatures...sided closer to warmer met numbers with 
expected increase in cloud cover. Highs on Thursday should recover 
into the upper 60s and lower 70s and we may see some partial 
sunshine by afternoon. 


Friday and Saturday... 
a very low confident and uncertain forecast over this time. The 
operational GFS has had a deep closed upper level low that moves 
into New England Friday night and Saturday. This solution would 
bring a decent period of rain into the region Friday night and 
Saturday. However...the European model (ecmwf)/UKMET show a much weaker system along 
with strong high pressure over New England keeping the action well 
to our south. The Canadian model is somewhat in between and brings 
a period of rain to areas south of the Massachusetts Pike. 


We are leaning towards the drier solutions for now and think the GFS 
is overdone and tracks the system too far north. Nonetheless...will 
have low chance probability of precipitation Friday night into Saturday night in case things 
change as we are still 4 to 5 days out. 


Sunday and Monday... 
mainly dry weather expected over this time. However...a cold front 
could bring a brief passing shower/sprinkle Sunday night and 
Monday. Will carry a 20 pop to cover this potential. Highs could 
reach into the 70 to 75 degree range on Sunday...but mainly 60s are 
expected on Monday behind the cold front. 


&& 


Aviation /08z Tuesday through Saturday/... 
through 15z...mostly VFR conditions with a few exceptions where 
patchy fog will reduce conditions to MVFR or IFR. These locations 
will be mainly in the Connecticut River valley...though patchy fog 
could turn up elsewhere. 


Rest of today...VFR. 


Tonight...mainly VFR with a few locations dropping down to MVFR or 
IFR in patchy fog. 


Wednesday...VFR. 


Outlook...Wednesday night through Saturday... 


Wednesday night and Thursday...VFR except for the chance of a few 
hours of patchy ground fog during the late night/early morning hours 
in the typically prone locations. 


Friday and Saturday...it is highly uncertain with considerable model 
disagreement. If a storm tracks far enough north we may see a period 
of MVFR/IFR conditions Friday night and Saturday. If not...VFR 
conditions will continue with high pressure in control. 


&& 


Marine... 
northwest winds around 15kts will continue through the day today as 
high pressure slowly moves into southern New England. Seas will 
gradually decrease through the day...falling below 5 feet middle 
morning. As high pressure moves over the waters...winds will 
decrease to around 10kts with seas continuing to decline. 


Outlook...Wednesday night through Saturday... 


Wednesday night and Thursday...conditions should remain below Small Craft Advisory 
thresholds. However...decent mixing over the land may result in 
some near shore southwest low 20 knot wind gusts Thursday afternoon. 


Friday and Saturday...a very low confident forecast over this time. 
GFS appears to be overdone so have lowered wna wave height and wind 
forecasts. Nonetheless...we could see Small Craft Advisory conditions for a time if 
the low pressure system makes it as far north as the GFS advertises. 


&& 


Box watches/warnings/advisories... 
CT...frost advisory until 8 am EDT this morning for ctz002>004. 
Massachusetts...freeze warning until 8 am EDT this morning for maz002-003-008- 
010. 
Frost advisory until 8 am EDT this morning for maz004-009-011. 
New Hampshire...freeze warning until 8 am EDT this morning for nhz011. 
Frost advisory until 8 am EDT this morning for nhz015. 
Rhode Island...none. 
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for anz254. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...wtb/rlg 
near term...rlg 
short term...rlg 
long term...Frank 
aviation...Frank/rlg 
marine...Frank/rlg 

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations

Non-Expanded Version (with abbreviations)