574 
fxus62 kchs 030204 
afdchs 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Charleston SC 
904 PM EST Tuesday Dec 2 2008 


Synopsis... 
high pressure will settle across the region into Thursday...with 
a cold front Thursday night. High pressure will return Saturday...with 
a reinforcing cold front expected Sunday night...followed by 
another area of high pressure. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 am Wednesday morning/... 
high pressure is in firm control of the weather across the 
southeast United States...resulting in clear skies and light or 
calm winds. Expect clear skies to continue overnight as high 
pressure continues to settle overhead. Overnight low temperatures 
look in good shape...and only some minor tweaks needed with 
evening update. Lows should bottom out in the middle 20s inland to 
the middle to upper 30s at the coast. 


&& 


Short term /6 am Wednesday morning through Wednesday night/... 
Wednesday...sunny and dry with surface high pressure shifting across 
the area into the Atlantic and zonal flow aloft. Will continue to 
follow the cooler 1000-850 mb thickness method for maximum 
temperatures...keeping readings only in the upper 50s...except slightly 
cooler along the coast...still about 6-10 degrees below seasonal 
levels. 


Wednesday night...still dry with high pressure in control but not 
as cool as tonight due to higher dewpoints and possibly some high 
clouds increasing from the west...and even some stratocu pushing 
toward the coast. Lowered min temperatures a few degrees most locales 
based on the latest MOS guidance...with temperatures in the lower to middle 
30s inland...ranging to the middle 40s along the coast. 


&& 


Long term /Thursday through Tuesday/... 
broad East-Coast upper trough pattern will persist Thursday through 
Saturday. A weakening shortwave will move through the Ohio/Tennessee 
Valley region on Thursday and bring a weak cold front through the 
area Thursday night through Friday morning. As the upper trough 
becomes more shallow...veering in the low and middle-levels will 
decrease the amount of available moisture ahead of the front 
Thursday night and Friday. Thus do not expect a widespread rain 
event. However scattered showers will likely accompany the front at 
least through the western portions. Will maintain slight chance 
probability of precipitation. Pre-frontal warm advection on Thursday will allow for the 
warmest temperatures of the period with highs in the middle to upper 60s. As 
cool high pressure builds in behind the front on Friday...dry weather 
and below normal temperatures will return. 


&& 


Aviation /02z Wednesday through Sunday/... 
VFR conditions are expected through the taf forecast period. 


Extended aviation outlook...brief MVFR conditions are possible 
with a cold front late in the week...otherwise VFR conditions 
should prevail. 


&& 


Marine... 
improving conditions tonight as high pressure to the west slides over the 
area. Rather tranquil conditions expected through Wednesday night with 
high pressure sliding offshore but remaining enough in control to 
prevent any significant pressure gradients from affecting the area. A 
weak trough of low pressure may develop S of the area Wednesday night and 
extend north into our waters but no significant impacts from this 
feature are expected. 


Thursday through Sunday...winds will surge behind a cold front Friday 
afternoon through Sat with high pressure building in. Winds may 
reach Small Craft Advisory thresholds Friday night or Sat...mainly 
over offshore Georgia waters. Seas likely to hit 6 feet at least 
temporarily. Another few surges expected with bursts of cold 
advection through sun. Northeast surge possible Monday as high 
pressure shifts NE and weak coastal trough sets up. Some marine 
flags likely in extended periods. 


&& 


Chs watches/warnings/advisories... 
Georgia...none. 
SC...none. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Jrj