898 
fxus62 kcae 070512 
afdcae 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Columbia SC 
112 am EDT sun Sep 7 2008 


Synopsis... 
a weak surface trough will linger over the region through Sunday 
in the wake of Hanna. Weak high pressure will return Monday. A 
moist easterly flow will develop by middle-week as a cold front 
approaches. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 am this morning/... 
dry weather will remain across the area overnight as a weakening 
cold front moves into the area. An upper trough will dig into the 
Upper Middle west overnight...keeping a southwest flow aloft across 
our area. Light winds are expected overnight with temperatures 
ranging from the middle 60s to around 70. 


&& 


Short term /6 am this morning through 6 PM Monday/... 
a lingering weak front will cross the area Sunday. A weak short 
wave will also move through. Could see a few showers or a 
thunderstorms Sunday afternoon across the eastern midlands. 
Consensus temperatures look good with highs in the low to middle 90s 
and lows in the middle 60s to lower 70s. 


&& 


Long term /Monday night through Saturday/... 
Hurricane Ike is currently being steered by a large middle to 
upper-level ridge over the western Atlantic near Bermuda. The 
ridge is forecast to shift eastward during the next couple of days 
allowing Ike to make a turn westward. By Monday and Tuesday, a 
shortwave trough moving over the eastern United States is expected 
to create a weakness to the north of Ike resulting a turn toward 
the west-northwest or northwest. This shortwave trough will be a 
critical player in Ike's eventual track at the extended ranges. 
Models are split into two camps at this time...with some models (ecmwf) 
showing the shortwave passing sufficiently far to the north to 
keep Ike moving west-northwestward.. other models (gfs) show Ike 
turning northward into the weakness. Official forecast closer to 
European model (ecmwf) with Ike continuing northwest across the Gulf of Mexico. Low 
level flow bring moisture into the region...therefore have 
included chance of precipitation each day. 


&& 


Aviation /05z Sunday through Thursday/... 
weak high pressure build in from the west in the wake of Tropical 
Storm Hanna which is now over southern New England. Weak dry cold 
front over the area on Sunday. Will just keep some scattered 
middle-level clouds mentioned for much of the taf period. At this time 
patchy morning fog does not appear to be much of a concern for 
Sunday so will not mention in the tafs. Winds will be light and 
somewhat variable. Scattered cumulus mainly during the afternoon. Expect 
VFR conditions throughout the 24 hour taf period. 


Extended period...no significant aviation issues expected at this 
time. All interests should monitor the status of Hurricane Ike in 
case it affects our region late in the extended period or beyond. 


&& 


Cae watches/warnings/advisories... 
SC...none. 
Georgia...none. 


&& 


$$