368 
fxus62 kilm 070646 
afdilm 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wilmington NC 
246 am EDT Tuesday Oct 7 2008 


Synopsis... 
high pressure will continue to control the weather across the area 
through Wednesday. A storm system will move across the southeastern 
United States Thursday and Friday bringing a chance of showers and 
thunderstorms with it. This storm system may linger across the area 
through the weekend into early next week keeping a slight chance of 
showers in the forecast throughout. 


&& 


Near term /through tonight/... 
as of 3 am Tuesday...surface observation show northeasterly surge working its way 
south across the County Warning Area as strong high pressure to the north builds 
south along the Appalachians. Surge will moderate later today as 
high center drops south and closer to the area. Expect gradual 
increase in upper level cloud cover this afternoon and evening as 500 mb 
ridge axis pushes east across the forecast area. With a deep dry 
column in place and no dynamics do not expect any precipitation in the near 
term. With modest cold air advection today maximum temperatures will be a few degrees lower 
than yesterday and right around climatology...middle to upper 70s. Mins 
tonight a bit below climatology in aftermath of cold surge...lower to middle 
50s. 


&& 


Short term /Wednesday through Thursday night/... 
as of 3 am Tuesday...still some timing differences between the 
GFS and NAM in regards to the closed low and attendant surface 
cyclone to affect the area late Wednesday through Friday morning. 
The NAM remains the slower solution and now keeps the cutoff near 
southern Alabama by Friday am while the GFS is more progressive. 
Will continue to lean toward the GFS for the sake of continuity. 
Omega fields are not that impressive at least for our area with the 
system. There should be enough coverage to support the inherited 
likely probability of precipitation for Thursday however. 


Temperature guidance remains consistent with middle to upper 70s for 
highs and lows ranging from the upper 50s to lower 60s with the 
warmer readings occurring Friday am with the increased moisture. 


&& 


Long term /Friday through Monday/... 
as of 3 am Tuesday...still a lot of uncertainty in the evolution of 
the upper level system for the extended. The operational GFS 
continues to show the system lingering while many of the ensemble 
members dissipate the feature. Prudence calls for maintaining at 
least some indication of probability of precipitation and will continue with inherited 
forecast. No changes to temperature forecast. 


&& 


Aviation /06z Tuesday through Friday/... 
a back door cold front is just now moving into our northern 
terminals with just a few clouds. Winds behind the front will go 
from nearly calm to between 5 and 10 kts toward sunrise. The 
strongest jump in winds will be with the surge along the coast. Some 
light fog is possible toward daybreak...especially inland where the 
winds will still be fairly light. 


Wind gusts will continue today with good mixing and scattered high 
clouds. It appears the strongest winds will be from morning through 
early afternoon with the gusts becoming less frequent after 20z. VFR 
through the remainder of the forecast period. 


Outlook through Friday...low pressure moves into South Carolina 
Thursday afternoon...with widespread showers expected Thursday 
evening through Friday. Ceilings/visible will be MVFR 
predominately...with some IFR through Friday. 


&& 


Marine... 
near term /through tonight/... 
as of 3 am Tuesday...buoy and land observation show modest northeasterly surge 
working its way south across the waters as strong high pressure to 
the north builds south along the Appalachians. Surge will moderate 
later today as high center drops south and closer to the area. Winds 
will be at their maximum late morning to early afternoon before surge 
moderates and seas will pick up to as much as 5 feet as a result. May 
add small craft should exercise caution to some or all of the 
coastal zones for the today portion of the forecast upon issuance of 
the coastal waters forecast. 


Short term /Wednesday through Thursday night/... 
as of 3 am Tuesday...an east to southeasterly flow of 10-15 knots 
will prevail through the period. Low level wind fields are less than 
impressive with the system moving across...with about 20 knots from 
time to time at 925 mb the strongest...this in a warm air advection 
set up makes translating these to the surface almost impossible. 


The latest wavewatch guidance seems a bit high considering the tepid 
wind fields and will continue to undercut values a bit across the 
board. 




Long term /Thursday through Saturday/... 
as of 3 am Tuesday...no changes to the extended coastal waters 
forecast this morning. Although the upper level low may linger in 
the area...it is expected to weaken and not have an appreciable 
impact on the wind and wave fields. 


&& 


Ilm watches/warnings/advisories... 
SC...none. 
NC...none. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Synopsis...shk 
near term...rek 
short term...shk 
long term...shk 
aviation...rek/eh