790 
fxus62 kcae 061937 
afdcae 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Columbia SC 
337 PM EDT Sat Sep 6 2008 


Synopsis... 
a weak surface trough will linger over the region through Sunday 
in the wake of Hanna. Weak high pressure will return Monday. A 
moist easterly flow will develop by middle-week as a cold front 
approaches. 




&& 


Near term /until 6 am Sunday morning/... 
dry weather will remain across the area overnight as a weakening 
cold front moves into the area. An upper trough will dig into the 
Upper Middle west overnight...keeping a southwest flow aloft across 
our area. Light winds are expected overnight with temperatures 
ranging from the middle 60s to around 70. 


&& 


Short term /6 am Sunday morning through Sunday night/... 
a lingering weak front will cross the area Sunday. A weak short 
wave will also move through. Could see a few showers or a 
thunderstorms Sunday afternoon across the eastern midlands. 
Consensus temperatures look good with highs in the low to middle 90s 
and lows in the middle 60s to lower 70s. 


&& 


Long term /Monday through Saturday/... 
Hurricane Ike is currently being steered by a large middle to 
upper-level ridge over the western Atlantic near Bermuda. The 
ridge is forecast to shift eastward during the next couple of days 
allowing Ike to make a turn westward. By Monday and Tuesday, a 
shortwave trough moving over the eastern United States is expected 
to create a weakness to the north of Ike resulting a turn toward 
the west-northwest or northwest. This shortwave trough will be a 
critical player in Ike's eventual track at the extended ranges. 
Models are split into two camps at this time...with some models (ecmwf) 
showing the shortwave passing sufficiently far to the north to 
keep Ike moving west-northwestward.. other models (gfs) show Ike 
turning northward into the weakness. Official forecast closer to 
European model (ecmwf) with Ike continuing northwest across the Gulf of Mexico. Low 
level flow bring moisture into the region...therefore have 
included chance of precipitation each day. 


&& 


Aviation /18z Saturday through Thursday/... 
VFR conditions expected through the taf period. Tropical Storm 
Hanna continues to pull away from the area with with wind speeds 
continuing to decrease. Westerly winds will push additional dry 
air into the region with skies remaining mostly clear through 
00z...then some clouds moving in from the west overnight. Winds 
after 00z will be light and variable as an inversion develops and 
weak high pressure centered over the area on Sunday. 


Extended period...no significant impacts to aviation expected 
Sunday through Wednesday. All interests are encouraged to monitor 
the status of Hurricane Ike for possible impacts to the region 
Thursday and beyond. 


&& 


Cae watches/warnings/advisories... 
SC...none. 
Georgia...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...10 
near term...10 
short term...10 
long term...10 
aviation...mp