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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Nashville Tennessee 
246 PM CDT Thursday Aug 28 2008 


Discussion...a ridge over the middle state was producing fair weather 
this afternoon. Skies featured scattered and sometimes broken 
cumulus clouds. Temperatures were in the 80s with dew points in the 60s. 
The cumulus clouds will dissipate late today...giving US a clear 
late evening. Middle and high clouds will start to move in from the 
northwest late tonight as a front...currently stretched from WI to 
NE...approaches the Tennessee Valley. 


The front will be rather weak with unimpressive moisture as it 
crosses our area late Friday into Saturday. At least isolated 
deep convection is expected...but high heights will limit 
coverage. So...we will go with 20-30 probability of precipitation for scattered 
thunderstorms in vicinity of this front. 


A high pressure system will shift across the Great Lakes to 
the East Coast this weekend into early next week. This high will 
extend into the middle state with mainly dry weather for most locations. 
But the stalled front to our south and moisture on the periphery 
of the ridge may produce small rain chances in the far south and 
west areas Sunday through Tuesday. 


The main question for the extended forecast is the future of 
Tropical Storm Gustav. The latest GFS strengthens the eastern U.S. 
Ridge...pushing Gustav more westward...and keeping our area dry 
around midweek. The previous European model (ecmwf) and some other models bring 
Gustav into the la coast and eventually up into Arkansas...which could 
mean some rain bands for our area around midweek. As a 
compromise and in agreement with HPC National guidance ... will 
carry small probability of precipitation in our west areas around midweek. 


Interestingly...by next weekend the latest European model (ecmwf) rolls a giant 
bowling Ball named Hanna directly on the same path as Gustav. One 
certainly never knows this far ahead...but that scenario would be 
very interesting and potentially devastating in the affected areas. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Nashville 67 92 68 91 / 0 30 30 20 
Clarksville 66 90 66 88 / 10 30 30 10 
Crossville 62 83 63 84 / 0 20 30 20 
Columbia 66 92 67 91 / 0 30 30 20 
Lawrenceburg 66 92 67 91 / 0 20 30 20 
Waverly 67 91 66 89 / 10 30 30 20 


&& 


Ohx watches/warnings/advisories...none. 


&& 


$$ 


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