900 
fxus64 kama 200733 
afdama 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas 
233 am CDT Wednesday Aug 20 2008 


Discussion... 
low clouds and fog should dissipate by late morning under strong 
August sunshine. Upper low over southern Oklahoma will only 
slowly drift northeast today. Believe that given the amount of 
moisture...instability and northwest flow aloft can not rule a 
shower or thunderstorm here or there. Have added some slight 
chance probability of precipitation across the panhandles. Mainly for the east near the 
upper low and in the west for any convection coming off of the 
mountains. 


Will leave Thursday and Friday dry as upper low moves away from 
the panhandles and upper high briefly builds over northeast New 
Mexico. Have gone ahead and kept the probability of precipitation in for Friday night 
through Saturday night with the next cold front in the area. 
Models want to bring the front in the northern areas and then 
basically wash it out over time through Saturday night. This 
seems reasonable as the upper level flow is not going to help 
out much with trying to drive a front through. At any rate...the 
front may produce enough lift to get thunderstorms going along it and 
then the light northerly flow aloft may help them drift southward. 


Have added some slight chance probability of precipitation for Sunday night and Monday night 
as upper high retrogrades back to the west and northwest flow sets up 
over the panhandles again. This flow will have a few upper air 
disturbances in it...so thought some mountain convection could be 
brought this way. 


The latest mex high temperatures may be a bit warm for Friday 
and Saturday given our wet soil conditions across the 
panhandles...so may undercut these just a bit. 


&& 


Fire weather... 
lightning from thunderstorms will be the main fire weather 
concern for this forecast. Otherwise...given the recent heavy 
rains...believe the fire weather threat will be low. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Amarillo Texas 79 61 88 64 91 / 20 20 5 5 5 
Beaver OK 81 59 91 67 92 / 20 20 5 5 5 
Boise City OK 81 59 90 61 90 / 20 20 5 5 5 
Borger Texas 81 63 90 67 92 / 20 20 5 5 5 
Boys Ranch Texas 84 62 93 65 95 / 20 20 5 5 5 
canyon Texas 80 60 90 64 91 / 20 20 5 5 5 
Clarendon Texas 78 61 86 65 90 / 20 20 5 5 5 
Dalhart Texas 83 60 90 60 91 / 20 20 5 5 5 
Guymon OK 81 60 92 65 94 / 20 20 5 5 5 
Hereford Texas 81 59 90 64 91 / 20 20 5 5 5 
Lipscomb Texas 80 59 88 67 92 / 20 20 5 5 5 
Pampa Texas 77 62 86 66 90 / 20 20 5 5 5 
Shamrock Texas 79 60 86 66 91 / 20 20 5 5 5 
Wellington Texas 81 61 88 67 92 / 20 20 5 5 5 


&& 


Ama watches/warnings/advisories... 
Texas...none. 
OK...none. 


&& 


$$ 


14/15