966 
fxus64 klch 070256 
afdlch 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Lake Charles la 
956 PM CDT Monday Oct 6 2008 


Discussion... 
ajusted rain chances to more closely follow the HPC solution. 
Otherwise zone package is on target. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 327 PM CDT Monday Oct 6 2008/ 


Discussion...advisories now being issued by the hurricane center 
for td13 over the Bay of Campeche. No impact for the immediate 
area as system advances west into old Mexico. 


Otherwise...area now under a steady low level onshore flow with lch 
VAD indicating southerly winds up to 9k feet. Morning lch sounding 
came in at 1.55 inches but latest GPS-met now up to 1.70 inches 
dewpoints up around 10 degrees from 24 hours prior. All this 
occurring with 500 mb trough arcing through the plains with a modest 
middle level low over Kansas and associated surface front draped in a 
similar position. 


Streamer showers and a few thunderstorms have persisted today over 
southeast Texas along instability axis and area of low level 
convergence. Rain chances continuing over the entire area 
tonight...peaking tomorrow as aforementioned middle level trough 
and surface boundary advance across region. At this time will keep 
the 50/50 chance with better probabilities north of our forecast 
area where lift will be more substantial. Dry high pressure 
follows frontal passage Tuesday evening with the remainder of the work-week 
dry. 


Southerly flow setting up again over the weekend with rain chances 
returning as deep troffing develops over the west Continental U.S.. 
differences in evolution of system remain at this time. Will 
simply maintain rain chance for the weekend into the new work- 
week...and make mention that another frontal passage will 
be...possible...Tuesday. 


Aviation...increasing and lowering cloud cover expected tonight 
with a moist southerly flow now in place. MVFR conditions on tap. 
Scattered thunderstorms expected Tuesday along and ahead of a cold 
front moving across the region during the afternoon and evening. 


Marine...our light onshore flow will continue into Tuesday...becoming 
offshore late in the day as a cold front with scattered showers 
and thunderstorms moves over the northwest Gulf. 


&& 


Prevailing point temps/pops... 
klch 70 85 62 85 56 / 20 50 20 10 0 
kbpt 72 85 60 85 55 / 20 50 20 10 0 
kaex 68 82 61 82 55 / 40 50 20 10 0 
klft 71 84 64 81 57 / 20 50 30 10 0 


&& 


Lch watches/warnings/advisories... 
la...none. 
Texas...none. 
GM...none. 
&& 


$$