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afdama 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas 
328 am CDT Friday Aug 29 2008 


Discussion... 
cold front located southwest to northeast across the Texas Panhandle 
early this morning from near a khrx to khhf line...moving slowly 
southeast. Low clouds developing across the western OK and northwest 
Texas panhandles and expected to continue developing east and south this 
morning. Upper ridge extending from the southwestern states eastward 
into the panhandles with a north to northeasterly upper flow. 
Shortwave energy over the central and southern rockies forecast to 
rotate east and south across the panhandles today. This will allow 
for chances for conection across the panhandles today and tonight. 
Will forecast slight chance probability of precipitation this morning increasing to chance 
probability of precipitation this afternoon and this evening. Upper high builds in over the 
Central Plains states and will continue moving east through tonight 
and Saturday. Weakness aloft/shortwave trough over the panhandles this 
weekend will keep continued slight chances for convection 
Saturday...with slight chance to chance probability of precipitation Sunday and Sunday night. 


Upper flow transitions to southerly and southwesterly early next week 
as a western states upper trough approaches. A series of shortwaves 
coming up from northwestern old Mexico and southern nm will approach 
the panhandles Labor Day and Monday night. Will keep higher probability of precipitation in 
the west and lowest in the east. Upper flow transitions to near zonal 
by the middle of next week with upper level support staying just 
south of the panhandles Tuesday and Wednesday. Will back off on probability of precipitation 
below slight chance Tuesday and Tuesday night. Upper trough over the 
central rockies Wednesday will allow for slight chance for 
convection...will carry slight chance probability of precipitation over the northeastern 
panhandles Wednesday and over all the panhandles Wednesday night. Dry 
forecast Thursday as subsidence prevails behind departing upper 
trough. The next cold advertised for early next week looks to be on 
track for pushing through the panhandles late Tuesday into early 
Wednesday. Temperatures through the forecast period expected to be near 
normal...except on Tuesday ahead of the front when temperatures may climb to 
near 90. Stayed close to GFS MOS guidance for temperatures. 


Schneider 


&& 


Fire weather... 
no fire weather concerns expected through the forecast period as 
convection chances continue into early next week and min relative 
humidity values to stay at or above 30 percent. Wind speeds expected 
to remain below 20 miles per hour at 20 feet. 


Schneider 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Amarillo Texas 85 63 83 62 83 / 30 30 20 10 20 
Beaver OK 85 68 87 66 92 / 20 30 10 10 20 
Boise City OK 82 62 85 60 83 / 30 30 10 5 20 
Borger Texas 86 68 85 68 86 / 30 30 10 10 20 
Boys Ranch Texas 86 65 88 63 86 / 30 30 20 10 20 
canyon Texas 85 63 85 60 84 / 30 30 20 10 20 
Clarendon Texas 85 65 84 64 86 / 30 30 20 10 20 
Dalhart Texas 83 61 86 61 84 / 30 30 10 10 30 
Guymon OK 84 64 84 65 90 / 20 20 10 5 20 
Hereford Texas 84 63 85 60 83 / 30 30 20 10 30 
Lipscomb Texas 84 65 83 67 89 / 30 30 10 10 20 
Pampa Texas 82 65 81 67 84 / 30 30 10 10 20 
Shamrock Texas 87 68 85 64 88 / 30 30 10 10 20 
Wellington Texas 88 69 85 65 88 / 30 30 20 10 20 


&& 


Ama watches/warnings/advisories... 
Texas...none. 
OK...none. 


&& 


$$ 


16/11