020 
fxus64 klub 062023 
afdlub 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Lubbock Texas 
323 PM CDT Monday Oct 6 2008 


Short term... 
at 3 PM...the cold front was moving though the area...roughly from 
near Hobbs nm to just west of Childress...as the upper level storm 
system slowly worked east across KS/OK. A line of meager thunderstorm activity was 
developing in the deeper moisture to the east of the front from 
about San Angelo to Wichita Falls...just off to the east of 
Stonewall County. This line is expected to shift farther east as the 
front continues it/S push. Otherwise...wraparound moisture on the 
backside of the upper low has resulted in scattered-broken skies across the 
panhandles/northern and western portions of the Southern Plains this afternoon. Shower 
activity across the Texas Panhandle has been on the wane as low-level cold air advection 
and drier air works south. Do not expect any showers to survive 
after about 6 PM or so. 


Drier air /dewpoints only in the 30s across NE nm and the western 
panhandles/ will work into the SW Panhandle and western Southern Plains 
tonight and allow for cool temperatures as the cloud cover dissipates. Lows 
may dip to near 40 across portions of our western zones. 


With moist soils and clearing skies...there is some potential for 
patchy fog toward morning across much of the County Warning Area. However...the wind 
is not expected to completely decouple which should really limit the 
fog to draws and other sheltered areas. 


For Tuesday...will look for a increase in northerly winds after 
sunrise from the central South Plains eastward as middle-level jet moves 
across this area. However...speeds should remain in the 15 to 25 miles per hour 
range with perhaps a few gusts to around 30 miles per hour across the eastern 
counties. Pressure gradient then relaxes in the afternoon. With the 
wet soil...have slightly undercut guidance high temperatures...keeping them 
mainly in the middle 70s. 




&& 


Long term... 
with the upper trough moving east...high temperatures will rebound 
into the 80s for Wednesday through Friday with no significant 
chances of rain. 


We expect changes next weekend...although the details of the 
forecast may take time to work out. Both the European model (ecmwf) and various GFS 
model runs show a deep upper low digging into the southern rockies 
by the weekend helping pull moisture north into the local area and 
bringing a chance of rain. The models however show significant 
differences in the position of the upper low over the last couple 
runs. The European model (ecmwf) digs the low into the Nevada-California 
region...before lift it northeast...while the GFS brings it much 
closer to our local area showing it digging well into southern and 
eastern Colorado. As a result...the GFS is cooler here locally 
with higher rain chances. The biggest similarity is that both 
models have been consistently forming this upper low and showing 
at least a chance of precipitation with best chances being 
Saturday night through Sunday night. 




&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Friona 42 75 45 80 48 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Tulia 45 73 47 82 50 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Plainview 47 73 48 83 51 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Levelland 45 75 46 85 51 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Lubbock 49 75 50 84 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Denver City 45 74 49 84 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Brownfield 47 74 50 84 51 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Childress 53 76 51 84 52 / 10 0 0 0 0 
spur 50 76 50 84 52 / 10 0 0 0 0 
Aspermont 53 77 49 84 54 / 10 0 0 0 0 


&& 


Lub watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


33/04