011 
fxus64 khgx 282011 
afdhgx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas 
311 PM CDT Thursday Aug 28 2008 


Discussion... 
flat ridging over the SW U.S. To shift east into the Texas/MO region 
by 12z Saturday then amplify up into Ohio Sunday night...staying 
put over the Ohio-Penn region through Wednesday. This will lead to 
a weakness from the Gulf up into Texas/la that will likely steer ts 
Gustav into the Gulf and then northwest be it la or Texas. Have to 
stress that at this time the error Cone is the forecast to be 
looking at rather than the black line! 


As for southeast Texas in the short term daytime heating will be driving the 
seabreeze and daytime convection. Scattered rain showers/thunderstorms and rain look to be a 
decent bet Friday...with the approach of a backdoor front Saturday 
the storms may be later in the day and perhaps more in the 
northeast on Saturday. Wind/Thermo profile would indicate that 
stronger storms will have greater microburst potential. Gustav 
should be moving into the Gulf Saturday. 


On Sunday Gustav should be moving northwest and southeast Texas should 
getting east to northeast flow with abundant sunshine. Subsidence 
will be on the increase...hence probability of precipitation should be a little lower 
Sunday. 


Still a great deal of uncertainty with Gustav timing and track 
guidance but if the current NHC track is on then landfall should 
be around Tuesday morning in la. Stay tuned to the NHC forecasts for 
the latest tracks and details. 


&& 


Marine... 
relatively flat pressure gradient will prevail the next 
few days. Higher period swell waves should start moving over region 
late in the weekend due to Gustav. For now...we made only slight 
changes for forecast late in the weekend to next week since 
forecast track essentially remains unchanged. Keep in mind that wave 
heights and winds will be highly dependent on Gustav's track. 
37 


&& 


Aviation... 
isolated convection induced by seabreeze boundary may affect 
sgr/hou and iah middle/late afternoon. For now we shall continue 
with cumulonimbus cloud group and update accordingly as per radar trends. 
We expect close to same scenario for later tonight (as last night) 
with patchy fog affecting some taf sites inland (cxo/uts/sgr). 
Low cloud ceilings (lifr) may develop again over northwest zones around 
sunrise tomorrow affecting cll/uts and to a lesser extent cxo. 
37 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
College Station (cll) 75 95 75 95 75 / 30 30 30 20 20 
Houston (iah) 75 94 75 93 75 / 30 30 30 20 20 
Galveston (gls) 79 91 79 90 79 / 20 30 20 20 20 


&& 


Hgx watches/warnings/advisories... 
Texas...none. 
GM...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Discussion...45