810 
fxus64 khgx 061949 
afdhgx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas 
249 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2008 


Discussion... 
the upper pattern shows a rather weak ridge over the Gulf Coast 
states. A series of shortwave troughs moving across the plains 
will try to work their way into the state during the next seven 
days. The interaction of these with the ridge along with the 
placement and strength of the ridge will help determine the final 
track of Ike. Thus...the forecast confidence in the models by the 
middle to late week period is not very high. 


The dry airmass will bring one more dry and relatively pleasant 
night and day to southeast Texas. Moisture return from the Gulf will then 
lead to a return in the rain chances and the temperature and 
moisture levels beginning late tomorrow. The models are 
advertising a front to arrive around Tuesday and then keep 
persistent rain chances over the area through much of the 
remainder of the week. As this agrees with the current forecast 
and given the low confidence level model solutions...will only 
tweak these but keep the general forecast in place. 


40 


&& 


Marine... 
high pressure centered over the Midwest will gradually move off to the 
east allowing an southeast flow to resume by late sun. Scattered rain showers/thunderstorms 
will be possible in the Gulf waters sun where deeper moisture 
levels reside. Otherwise...winds will remain fairly light and seas 
will generally run 3 feet or less into Wednesday. Hurricane Ike should 
emerge into the southeastern Gulf early next week. Assuming no drastic 
downward intensity or track changes...it should start sending some 
swells toward Texas. Low end/high period Erly swells could start 
arriving Wednesday night...and building into Thursday and Friday. Will go 
below wwiii guidance for now considering the uncertainty regarding 
Ike's track and eventual intensity (influence of cuba). But if it 
remains strong...these values will probably need to be bumped up 
especially Thursday night and beyond. 47 


&& 


Aviation... 
usual terminals of uts...cxo...sgr and lbx may have some MVFR fog 
late tonight and early Sun morning. Otherwise...VFR. 47 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
College Station (cll) 68 94 71 93 73 / 10 10 10 20 20 
Houston (iah) 68 94 72 92 73 / 10 10 10 20 10 
Galveston (gls) 78 90 80 88 79 / 10 20 10 20 10 


&& 


Hgx watches/warnings/advisories... 
Texas...none. 
GM...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Discussion...40 
aviation/marine...47