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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas 
555 PM CST Tuesday Dec 2 2008 


Aviation... 
southwesterly surface winds expected to remain below 15 knots this evening...with 
potential for areas of low-level wind shear near Guy and Ama prior to 
frontal passage. Cold front expected to arrive between 06z and 09z Wednesday at all 
taf sites. Northerly surface winds expected to gust above 35 knots at all taf 
sites following frontal passage. Aviation Wind Advisory may be required for 
gusts reaching 40 knots at Ama. Will continue to assess situation. 
Post-frontal stratus expected to develop around 2500 feet. Will not 
call for ceilings at this time...but MVFR ceilings are not out of the 
question between 15z and 20z Wednesday. Otherwise...VFR conditions 
expected to prevail...with cirrus and ac ceilings through next 24 hours. 


Cockrell 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 353 PM CST Tuesday Dec 2 2008/ 


Discussion... 
a broad cirrus shield will create a canopy across the Texas and 
Oklahoma panhandles for much of tonight. With the addition of west 
and southwest winds...overnight temperatures should stay warm before 
the anticipated cold front dives into the area. Strong cold air will 
advect into the panhandles...resulting in maximum temperature differences 
of 20 to 30 degrees. Also...the pressure gradient should strengthen 
behind the frontal passage...so north winds will increase just short 
of Wind Advisory criteria. 


Precipitation chances will remain slim on Wednesday given the drier 
air within the lower levels. With the associated upper level disturbance 
moving so quickly...it will be difficult to moisten the atmosphere 
entirely from top to bottom. Slight chance probability of precipitation will continue. 


Overnight temperatures on Wednesday night and Thursday night will be 
cold. Wind chills do fall to a range of 10 to 20 late Wednesday night 
and early Thursday morning over much of the area while the western 
Oklahoma and northwest Texas panhandles drop between 5 and 10 
degrees. Though winds do not meet advisory criteria for wind 
chills...we will need to watch this period closely for the potential 
of near bitter cold conditions. 


On Friday...another upper level disturbance should clip the 
panhandles...increasing clouds mainly over the north. South winds 
will return and strengthen...initiating the warming trend that 
should last into the weekend. 


Another weather system moves swiftly over the southern High Plains 
early next week. With most of the lift remaining north and a dry 
atmosphere...dry weather will continue. 


Nunez 


Fire weather... 
a cold front surges across the panhandles late tonight and Wednesday 
morning. As cold air enters the area on Wednesday and persists 
through Thursday...fire weather conditions will remain low. 
Temperatures warm up gradually during the weekend...so fire weather 
conditions could become moderate. 


Nunez 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Amarillo Texas 38 46 21 39 19 / 0 10 0 5 0 
Beaver OK 30 45 21 37 17 / 5 20 0 5 0 
Boise City OK 32 41 15 35 14 / 5 20 0 5 5 
Borger Texas 40 45 22 43 20 / 0 20 0 5 0 
Boys Ranch Texas 39 47 25 42 23 / 0 10 0 5 0 
canyon Texas 38 44 23 41 22 / 0 10 0 5 0 
Clarendon Texas 41 47 22 41 21 / 0 10 0 5 0 
Dalhart Texas 35 45 20 38 18 / 5 20 0 5 0 
Guymon OK 33 43 19 41 17 / 5 20 0 5 0 
Hereford Texas 38 49 23 44 22 / 0 10 0 5 0 
Lipscomb Texas 35 43 23 39 24 / 0 20 0 5 0 
Pampa Texas 36 43 21 41 18 / 0 10 0 5 0 
Shamrock Texas 40 46 23 41 25 / 0 10 0 5 0 
Wellington Texas 43 51 26 43 26 / 0 10 0 5 0 


&& 


Ama watches/warnings/advisories... 
Texas...none. 
OK...none. 


&& 


$$ 


03/24