291 
fxus64 kama 231114 
afdama 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas 
514 am CST Monday Nov 23 2009 


Discussion... 
a cold front is slated to move across the panhandles today. 
Temperatures should climb above normal across the southern Texas 
Panhandle...but will be short lived as the front sweeps south of the 
panhandles by late this afternoon. Given the strong pressure gradient 
ahead and behind the front...winds should be breezy at minimum. After 
the associated trough tracks overhead tonight...cool northwest flow 
will develop aloft and high temperatures should remain at the norm 
Tuesday and Wednesday. 


By Thursday...heights increase over the southern High Plains as the 
western U.S. Ridge builds east. Dry conditions will exist during 
Thanksgiving day through Saturday while this ridge moves across the 
central and Southern Plains. 


The next cold front sweeps across the southern High Plains on 
Saturday. With moisture lacking...passage will be dry. Models are 
trying to resolve another weather system which could bring our next 
chance of precipitation sometime between Sunday and Monday. 
Consistency is lacking and there is no evidence of adequate 
moisture. Therefore...precipitation was removed from the extended 
forecast. 


Nunez 


&& 


Fire weather... 
fire weather concerns will be elevated over the southwest and south 
central Texas Panhandle today where breezy winds and low relative 
humidities combine. While the probability is low at this time...the 
southern row of counties may approach extreme conditions if the cold 
front delays one or two hours. Next shift will need to monitor the 
progress of the front as it moves over the area today. 


Nunez 


&& 


Aviation... 
main aviation concerns today will be the frontal passage timing and strength 
of winds...both ahead of and behind the front. The forecast will 
remain VFR with broken high clouds through midday...scattering 
during the afternoon. This cold front is forecast to move through 
kdht/kguy around 18z...then reach kama around 20z. Ahead of this 
front...southwest winds will increase to around 20 kts...with gusts 
around 30 kts...especially in the south around kama. As the front 
passes...winds will shift to the northwest and north...increasing to 
20 to 25 kts sustained...with potential gusts exceeding 35 kts. 
There could also be very brief visibility restrictions due to blowing 
dust. By 01z...winds will diminish to around 15 kts and may drop 
below 10 kts after 06z. 


Johnson 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Amarillo Texas 63 29 53 24 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Beaver OK 60 31 53 23 53 / 5 0 0 0 0 
Boise City OK 50 26 52 22 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Borger Texas 59 32 55 27 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Boys Ranch Texas 61 27 56 22 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 
canyon Texas 66 28 55 21 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Clarendon Texas 67 34 56 27 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Dalhart Texas 57 24 55 20 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Guymon OK 57 28 53 23 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Hereford Texas 65 25 55 20 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Lipscomb Texas 61 32 54 23 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Pampa Texas 59 32 53 29 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Shamrock Texas 66 36 59 28 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Wellington Texas 69 36 60 29 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 


&& 


Ama watches/warnings/advisories... 
Texas...none. 
OK...none. 


&& 


$$ 


24/08