387 
fxus64 kewx 200445 aaa 
afdewx 


Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas 
1145 PM CDT Tuesday Aug 19 2008 


Aviation... 
I-35 corridor terminals developing MVFR ceilings overnight with 
scattered showers and thunderstorms locally lowering ceilings and 
visibilities. After 08z predominant IFR ceilings lifting to MVFR after 14z and 
VFR after 19z. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms 
diminishing around sunset Wednesday. Kdrt terminal generally VFR 
with isolated showers and thunderstorms..diminishing by sunrise. 
Light and variable winds tonight becoming light southwest I-35 
corridor terminals after 14z. Kdrt terminal winds light north 
becoming light southeast after 16z. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 1139 PM CDT Tuesday Aug 19 2008/ 


Aviation... 
I-35 corridor terminals developing MVFR ceilings overnight with 
scattered showers and thunderstorms locally lowering ceilings and 
visibilities. After 08z predominant IFR ceilings lifting to MVFR after 14z and 
VFR after 19z. Kdrt terminal generally VFR with widely scattered 
to isolated showers and thunderstorms..diminishing around sunset. 
Light and variable winds tonight becoming light southwest I-35 
corridor terminals after 14z. Kdrt terminal winds light north 
becoming light southeast after 16z. 


Previous discussion... /issued 914 PM CDT Tuesday Aug 19 2008/ 


Update...will send out a quick update to adjust the evening and 
overnight pop's. Have lowered them about 10-20 percent...based on 
the current trends. Otherwise...no changes were made. Updates out 
shortly. 


Previous discussion... /issued 708 PM CDT Tuesday Aug 19 2008/ 


Aviation... 
I-35 corridor terminals patchy MVFR ceilings early this evening with 
scattered showers and thunderstorms locally lowering ceilings and 
visibilities. Becoming after midnight predominant IFR ceilings lifting to 
MVFR after 14z and VFR after 19z. Kdrt terminal generally VFR 
with widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Light and 
variable winds tonight becoming light southwest I-35 corridor 
terminals after 14z. Kdrt terminal winds light north becoming 
light southeast after 16z. 


Previous discussion... /issued 245 PM CDT Tuesday Aug 19 2008/ 


Discussion... 
this afternoon the upper level low pressure system was centered 
over southeast Oklahoma with an associated vorticity maximum swinging 
southeast across far West Texas. Isolated to scattered showers and 
thunderstorms were once again developing across the County warning forecast area as 
afternoon temperatures reach the convective trigger temperature. Some 
locally heavy rainfall is still possible early this evening. 
Showers and thunderstorms will continue overnight as the vorticity maximum 
currently located over far West Texas moves eastward across our 
County warning forecast area. 


The broad upper level low pressure system will linger over North 
Texas on Wednesday resulting a continued chance of showers and 
thunderstorms across the County warning forecast area. The upper low finally lifts out 
to the northeast Wednesday night into Thursday. Residual moisture 
will linger across the eastern two thirds of the County warning forecast area even after 
the departure of the upper low. Thus expect diurnally driven 
showers and thunderstorms Thursday through Sunday. 


The temperature and pop forecast will not stray far from the GFS/gfsx MOS 
guidance numbers. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Austin Camp Mabry 71 88 72 93 75 / 40 40 20 20 10 
Austin Bergstrom international Airport 70 88 70 93 73 / 40 40 20 20 20 
del Rio International Airport 70 93 74 96 76 / 20 20 10 - 10 
San Antonio International Airport 71 89 73 93 76 / 20 30 10 10 10 


&& 


Ewx watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


03/02