927 
fxus64 kcrp 300938 
afdcrp 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Corpus Christi Texas 
438 am CDT Sat Aug 30 2008 


Short term (today through sunday)...concur with the GFS/NAM that 
the upper disturbance to the west will move westward/dissipate while an 
upper ridge builds across the region. Copious moisture will persist today. 
The GFS/NAM differ with respect to whether significant drying will 
occur Sunday from east to west. Nevertheless...the increasing 
influence of the upper ridge should result in less of a chance for 
convection Sunday...especially over the eastern sections. Will maintain 
chance probability of precipitation over the western/central County warning forecast area today owing to the yet decreasing 
influence of the upper disturbance. Only isolated convection over the 
eastern County warning forecast area. Will restrict convection to the central/western County warning forecast area Sunday. 


&& 


Aviation...patchy fog...with MVFR visibilities...over portions of 
the coastal Bend will dissipate by 15z. Afterward...VFR conditions 
will prevail except for MVFR ceilings near convection. 


&& 


Marine...isolated convection over the coastal waters should dissipate 
by middle morning or afternoon. Anticipate noctural isolated convection early 
Sunday...yet increasing subsidence/decreasing moisture will preclude 
activity by Sunday afternoon. Wind and wind-generated waves will remain 
below the scec category through Sunday. 


&& 


Long term (sunday night through saturday)...moisture / Theta-E axis 
does get shunted further west into old Mexico on Sunday night with 
moisture decreasing markedly in the vertical above the surface. With 
this said...only isolated early evening convection is expected on 
Sunday night west of Highway 281. 


Gustav should be emerging into the Gulf early Sunday. There is 
tighter model consensus envelope bringing Gustav into southern 
Louisiana early Tuesday morning. NHC forecast for Gustav aligns with the 
aforementioned consensus envelope. This trajectory would bring in 
some swells to the south Texas region late Sunday and Monday. The 
latest forecasts from the National Hurricane Center should continued 
to be monitored closely for any deviations of the forecast track to 
the west. With the given forecast track of Gustav...offshore winds 
and strong subsidence will be the general rule providing drier and 
hotter weather through the midweek time-frame with the abatement of 
the onshore flow. Minimum relative humidity values remain in the low 30s across 
areas west State Highway 16 during middle week with temperatures soaring well 
into the 100+ range across the Rio Grande plains. This trend would 
also lead to almost triple digit temperature readings just east of 
Highway 77 by midweek. Onshore flow should resume by the end of next 
week with Gustav possibly migrating further inland. The onshore flow 
should moderate temperatures across the region. Any future tropical 
development in the Gulf of Mexico may be needed to be monitored by 
the end of next week as well. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Corpus Christi 92 76 94 75 97 / 30 10 10 10 10 
Victoria 94 73 95 73 98 / 20 10 10 10 10 
Laredo 91 77 96 77 101 / 50 30 20 10 10 
Alice 93 75 95 73 100 / 30 20 10 10 10 
Rockport 92 78 92 78 96 / 20 10 10 10 10 
Cotulla 92 75 95 72 101 / 50 30 20 10 10 
Kingsville 93 76 94 74 98 / 30 10 10 10 10 
Navy corpus 90 79 91 77 94 / 20 10 10 10 10 


&& 


Crp watches/warnings/advisories... 
Texas...none. 
GM...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Wc/87...short term 
SC/70...long term