143 
fxus64 kepz 062001 
afdepz 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service El Paso Texas/Santa Teresa nm 
201 PM MDT Monday Oct 6 2008 


Synopsis... 
high pressure building in from the west will bring clear skies 
and afternoon temperatures warming to near or a little above 
normal the next few days. A weak disturbance aloft may bring 
an increase in clouds Thursday and Friday. A strong cold front 
moving through Saturday night or early Sunday will bring gusty 
winds and much cooler tempertures. 


&& 


Discussion... 
upper level low and associated trough heading out into the plains 
as high pressure builds in from the west. Weak vorticity lobe and front 
dropping south across eastern New Mexico tonight behind upper level 
system will likely bring some clouds and spotty drizzle to eastern 
slopes of the sacs tonight into Tuesday morning. Winds shifting to 
the east over much of the area tonight as weak front GOES through 
then to southeast tomorrow and Wednesday. Front will slow down the 
warming trend a bit...but will still reach near normal afternoon 
temperatures for tomorrow and a little above normal Wednesday through 
Saturday. Southwesterly flow ahead of a developing upper level low 
and associated trough may bring in enough moisture from the sea of 
Cortez to cause increasing cloudiness Thursday and Friday. While 
showers are not out of the question Friday...there is too much 
model divergence to add probability of precipitation at this point. 


In the longer range...GFS develops upper low over Idaho and takes 
it to near Four Corners area by Saturday night then northeast 
through Colorado Sunday. Euro drops it south from Idaho to 
southern Nevada...then back to southern Idaho by Saturday night 
and northeast into Canada. GFS solution looks much more 
reasonable...but not yet locked in. If current GFS and past couple 
of runs have a handle on it...we can expect some gusty winds on 
Saturday with a slight chance of showers then a strong cold front 
on Sunday taking temperatures down by 15 to 20 degrees. Southwest flow 
ahead of front could bring in enough moisture for showers and 
T-storms Saturday into Sunday...but not jumping on that due to 
uncertainty in model solutions. Models not reflecting it at the 
moment...but another potential problem may be overrunning behind 
the front Monday. Fairly confident of forecast solutions through 
Thursday. Much less confidence Friday through Monday. 


&& 


Aviation...valid 07/0000z-08/0000z 
VFR conditions through the period. See appropriate tafs for 
more details. 




&& 


Fire Weather... 
Ridge of high pressure over the Borderland will keep things warm and 
dry for much of the week. As the weekend approaches another low 
looks to influence the area. Models still have some disagreement 
concerning the exact track of said low and thus it's full effect on 
the region. Will continue to monitor model runs and update forecast 
as needed. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
El Paso 53 81 54 84 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Sierra Blanca Texas 46 77 47 81 49 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Las Cruces 51 81 52 84 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Alamogordo 48 80 49 84 51 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Cloudcroft 30 58 31 63 34 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Truth or Consequences 49 80 50 85 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Silver City 39 73 40 78 43 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Deming 49 80 50 83 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Lordsburg 46 81 47 85 49 / 0 0 0 0 0 


&& 


Epz watches/warnings/advisories... 
nm...none. 
Texas...none. 
&& 


$$ 


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