960 
fxus64 kfwd 070424 aac 
afdfwd 


Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas 
1124 PM CDT Monday Oct 6 2008 


Aviation... 
06z tafs 
thunderstorms and rain should pass through the Waco terminal by 07z. Expect clearing 
skies from west to east tonight. Front will be in metropolitan sites 
around 07z and at Waco by 09z. Northwest winds will be light 
behind the front. While we cannot rule out some scattered MVFR 
clouds developing across the metropolitan sites after the front 
passes...more likely scenario appears to be nearly clear skies. If 
skies remain clear and winds are light...expect some fog to 
develop by sunrise. 


&& 






Previous discussion... /issued 300 PM CDT Monday Oct 6 2008/ 
300 PM 
upper low centered over Kansas this afternoon. Associated lift 
currently over North Texas should be moving east of the area 
before noon tomorrow. Have likely probability of precipitation in the south through 
northeast this evening...becoming just a bit of lingering probability of precipitation 
over the far east after sunrise. Kept the showers and 
thunderstorm wording for evening...then expect primarily showers 
with possible isolated thunder after midnight. Cold front should 
enter northwest zones just after midnight...and sweep on through 
the southeast zones by early afternoon. 


In the extended...12z European model (ecmwf) run looks very similar to previous 
00z European model (ecmwf). 12z GFS is a major departure from previous GFS run. Bot 
models agree that deep upper low enters Great Basin Saturday...and 
European model (ecmwf) then moves it northeast into upper plains by Monday morning. 
Old GFS brought upper low over the Texas/OK Panhandle by Monday...new 
GFS sends it over Nebraska. With so much uncertainty and lack of 
run to run continuity from the GFS...have not changed previous 
extended forecast which was based more on the European model (ecmwf). Only 
departure from European model (ecmwf) is that temperatures over the weekend 
were moderated a bit for cloud cover and chance precipitation. 84 






&& 




Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 62 81 55 86 57 / 60 10 5 0 0 
Waco, Texas 65 83 56 84 57 / 70 10 5 0 0 
Paris, Texas 62 76 52 81 51 / 80 20 5 0 0 
Denton, Texas 59 79 49 84 52 / 60 5 5 0 0 
McKinney, Texas 60 81 48 84 51 / 70 10 5 0 0 
Dallas, Texas 63 79 58 86 60 / 60 10 5 0 0 
Terrell, Texas 64 78 53 83 54 / 70 10 5 0 0 
Corsicana, Texas 62 83 54 85 56 / 70 10 5 0 0 
Temple, Texas 65 84 54 85 56 / 70 10 5 0 0 


&& 


Forward watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 


&& 


$$