509 
fxus64 klch 030000 
afdlch 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Lake Charles la 
600 PM CST Tuesday Dec 2 2008 


Aviation... 
VFR conditions expected this evening. Return flow has already set 
up across the region...and expected to actually increase from west to 
east after midnight. With this increasing low level jet...sct/bkn layer will 
likely develop at bpt between 2000-2500ft by 06z...and lch by 08z. 
With the increasing pressure gradient...expect predominate S winds 
above 20kts with gusts to near 30kts by 15z...and lasting 
throughout the afternoon. 


Dml 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 339 PM CST Tuesday Dec 2 2008/ 


Discussion... 
the main concern over the next 24 hours will be the wind. As the 
low pressure and cold front move into the region, the pressure 
gradient will strengthen. I went ahead and issued a lake Wind 
Advisory for the coastal parishes along and south of I-10 for 
Wednesday. The next concern will be rain chances associated with 
the cold front Wednesday night. Showers and isolated storms look 
likely with the passage of the front. Surface instability is will 
be limited with cape values less than 500 j/kg. Therefore...no 
severe weather is expected. 


Cooler and breezy weather will return on Thursday along with 
drier air filtering in behind the cold front. Temperatures will struggle 
to reach 60 with strong cold air advection. Weather looks quiet for the end 
of the week with seasonable temperatures thanks to a zonal flow. Some 
questions remains about the next system early next week. The European model (ecmwf) 
shows a wetter system moving through late Monday night into 
Tuesday but the GFS shows a front moving through late Tuesday 
afternoon with most of the moisture missing the area to the east. 


Marine... 
winds will begin to pick up over the coastal waters from west to 
east tonight into Wednesday morning. I went ahead and issued a 
Small Craft Advisory for the coastal waters according to the 
arrival time of the strong winds. Seas will also build due to the 
winds. Southerly winds will switch to the north with the passage 
of a strong cold front late Wednesday night along with numerous 
showers and thunderstorms. 


Griffin 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
klch 52 74 51 58 36 / 0 20 50 20 10 
kbpt 54 74 50 59 37 / 0 20 50 10 10 
kaex 46 72 48 58 34 / 0 10 50 10 10 
klft 48 73 52 58 37 / 0 10 50 30 10 


&& 


Lch watches/warnings/advisories... 
La...Lake Wind Advisory from 10 am to 6 PM CST Wednesday for the 
following zones: Acadia...Calcasieu...Cameron...Iberia... 
Jefferson Davis...Lafayette...lower St. Martin...St. Mary... 
upper St. Martin...Vermilion. 


Texas...Lake Wind Advisory from 10 am to 6 PM CST Wednesday for the 
following zones: Jefferson...Orange. 


GM...Small Craft Advisory from 3 am to 4 PM CST Wednesday for the 
following zones: coastal waters from lower Atchafalaya 
River to Intracoastal City, la out 20 nm...waters from 
lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City, la extending 
from 20 nm to 60 nm. 


Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 4 PM CST 
Wednesday for the following zones: coastal waters from 
Cameron, la to High Island, Texas out 20 nm...waters from 
Cameron, la to High Island, Texas extending from 20 nm to 60 
nm. 


Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 4 PM CST Wednesday 
for the following zones: Calcasieu Lake...coastal waters 
from Intracoastal City to Cameron, la out 20 nm...Sabine 
Lake...waters from Intracoastal City, la to Cameron, la 
extending from 20 nm to 60 nm. 


Small Craft Advisory from 9 am to 4 PM CST Wednesday for the 
following zones: Vermilion Bay. 


&& 


$$