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fxus64 kcrp 030154 aaa 
afdcrp 


Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Corpus Christi Texas 
754 PM CST Tuesday Dec 2 2008 


Discussion...aviation update...low cloud satellite enhancement 
shows region of low clouds forming over the Gulf waters east of 
Rockport. Updated vct taf to show MVFR ceilings developing after 
midnight and continuing until mid-morning. Expect these ceilings 
to be east of a Kingsville-Beeville line. 




&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 551 PM CST Tuesday Dec 2 2008/ 


Discussion...see aviation section. 


Aviation...VFR conditions will continue through Wednesday. Low level 
flow will strengthen over the coastal plains tonight as an area of low 
pressure deepens over the southern High Plains in advance of an upper 
level disturbance moving southeast out of the central rockies. Models 
indicated the southerly low level jet will intensify overnight to 
45-50 knots around 1500-2000 feet. Could see isolated pockets of 
stratocu providing MVFR ceilings overnight as this low level jet 
sets up. But most of the models show axis of moisture return to be 
just east of the coastal Bend. Did not show MVFR ceilings in the 
tafs for ali/crp/vct. Did place a mention of low level wind shear 
for the overnight hours to a few hours after sunrise for ali/crp. 
Gusty southerly winds will continue during the day before subsiding 
late in the afternoon as a cold front moves into central Texas. 


Previous discussion... /issued 257 PM CST Tuesday Dec 2 2008/ 


Short term (tonight through Wednesday night)...winds have increased 
today in response to a deepening low pressure system to our west. 
As a result...low level moisture is beginning its return to south 
Texas. With increased moisture and onshore flow in place...low 
temperatures tonight are expected to be significantly higher than 
previous nights...with temperatures ranging from the upper 50s to low 
60s. Breezy conditions are expected Wednesday afternoon ahead of 
an approaching cold front. These south winds ahead of the front 
will lead to above normal temperatures...with afternoon highs in the low 
to middle 80s expected. The front is expected to push through the 
region late Wednesday night. Believe most of the precipitation will stay 
to the north of the area. For now...am only showing slight chance 
probability of precipitation for the extreme northeast counties and then offshore where 
the best instability is prognosticated to be. 


Marine (tonight through Wednesday night)...as the pressure 
gradient continues to increase over the Gulf waters in response to 
a deepening low pressure system to our west...Small Craft Advisory conditions are 
expected to develop by early evening. Winds should remain near Small Craft Advisory 
criteria through the period. 


Long term (thursday through tuesday)...the models are in close 
agreement with the main synoptic pattern through the weekend. A ridge 
axis anchored to our west will intensify through the weekend as several 
S/waves round the base of a persistent eastern United States trough 
axis. Cooler temperatures will prevail on Thursday and Friday as a sprawling 1030+ 
mb surface ridge axis stretching across the southern and Central Plains noses 
into south Texas. The trend in the models has been to develop a weaker 
coastal trough axis each run for Friday. While overrunning is still 
expected...it appears that light precipitation will be mostly confined to the 
coastal counties and the waters on Friday. The overrunning pattern will 
begin breaking down on Friday night and will end totally on Saturday. 
The cloud cover should break up on Saturday to allow temperatures to warm up 
by 10-20 degrees over friday's highs. A continued warmup is expected 
through Monday as return flow gradually increases. The main forecast 
problem of the models is their handling of the closed low along the 
California coast. Most of the guidance is progressive with this 
feature while the GFS maintains this system more as a cut-off low. 
Even with the other guidance...they still differ on the timing. As 
a result...will lean towards the much slower solution of the GFS. Will thus 
continue a moderate return flow into Tuesday while the other models 
depict a frontal boundary approaching the County Warning Area. Will maintain the above 
normal temperatures and mostly cloudy conditions through Tuesday. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Corpus Christi 58 83 52 64 49 / 10 10 10 10 10 
Victoria 56 80 45 61 38 / 10 10 20 10 10 
Laredo 55 86 50 67 47 / 0 0 0 0 10 
Alice 54 84 49 65 46 / 0 10 10 0 10 
Rockport 63 79 53 62 47 / 10 10 20 10 10 
Cotulla 53 81 46 66 40 / 0 0 0 0 10 
Kingsville 57 84 52 65 47 / 10 10 10 10 10 
Navy corpus 65 79 55 63 54 / 10 10 10 10 10 


&& 


Crp watches/warnings/advisories... 
Texas...none. 
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Wednesday for the following 
zones: coastal waters Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 
nm...coastal waters Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel 
out 20 nm...waters Baffin Bay to Port Aransas 20 to 60 nm... 
waters Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel 20 to 60 nm. 


&& 


$$ 


Tmt/89...aviation