253 
fxus64 kcrp 061743 
afdcrp 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Corpus Christi Texas 
1243 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2008 


Discussion...updated for aviation discussion below. 


&& 


Aviation...VFR conditions will prevail through the day and the 
late night hours. MVFR visibilities will be possible during the early 
morning hours (09z- 14z) across the inland coastal plains. VFR 
conditions are expected to prevail across all taf sites by 15z 
Sunday morning. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 1004 am CDT Sat Sep 6 2008/ 


Discussion...another dry and warm is in store for south Texas as 
surface high pressure is in place. Low clouds across portions of the 
Rio Grande plains are slowly burning off this morning and mostly 
sunny skies are expected areawide by this afternoon. Made minor 
tweaks to the sky grids to account for current trends. Rest of 
forecast package looks on track and no other changes needed at the 
moment. Updated products out shortly. 


Previous discussion... /issued 638 am CDT Sat Sep 6 2008/ 


Discussion...update to add aviation forecast 


Aviation...MVFR visibilities are being observed over the inland counties 
this morning...mainly over kvct. Visibilities will improve later this 
morning with VFR conditions expected to prevail after around 14z. 
Light east to southeast winds expected today with just a few clouds 
inland. 


Previous discussion... /issued 348 am CDT Sat Sep 6 2008/ 


Short term (today through sunday)...the dry and warm conditions will 
continue for Saturday with relatively low dewpoints. By the end of 
the weekend moisture increase from the south and precipitable water values 
increase to near 2 inches...therefore have kept 20 percent probability of precipitation for 
that time frame with sea-breeze activity expect. Temperatures will 
remain near seasonal norms for both maximum and min through the 
weekend. Heat indices are also expected to remain below 105 degrees 
through the period. 


Marine...onshore flow is expected to slightly increase today as high 
pressure shifts east. Isolated showers and a few thunderstorms are 
expected Sunday as moisture increase from the south. 


Long term (sunday night through friday)...the weak frontal boundary that 
moved through several days ago will move northward across the County Warning Area Sun night 
and aid in the moistening up process. A slug of deeper moisture 
originating from the Carribean and Bay of Campeche will affect the County Warning Area 
Monday night through Wednesday. The models have been fairly consistent with 
advecting this deeper moisture across the County Warning Area during this part of 
the forecast. Will maintain the low chance probability of precipitation through most of this 
particular timeframe. Of course the main concern for the forecast will be 
the eventual track of Hurricane Ike. The envelope of model guidance 
has continued to shift Ike further left. As a result...all of the 
guidance now forecasts Ike pushing into the eastern Gulf by Tuesday. Still way 
too much uncertainty in the models to determine where Ike will make 
landfall. However...a digging trough axis and assctd cold fnt will 
likely keep Ike away from south Texas. Will show large swells affecting 
the coastal waters by Thursday. Increasing offshore flow and subsidence 
will affect the County Warning Area on Thursday and Friday and allow the airmass to warm up 
and dry out. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Corpus Christi 74 92 75 93 75 / 10 20 10 10 10 
Victoria 70 94 73 95 73 / 10 10 10 10 10 
Laredo 76 97 79 100 78 / 10 10 10 10 10 
Alice 72 95 74 96 74 / 10 20 10 10 10 
Rockport 77 92 79 91 78 / 10 20 10 10 10 
Cotulla 71 96 74 98 75 / 10 10 10 10 10 
Kingsville 73 94 75 94 75 / 10 20 10 10 10 
Navy corpus 77 90 78 90 78 / 10 20 10 10 10 


&& 


Crp watches/warnings/advisories... 
Texas...none. 
GM...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Krr/97...aviation