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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas 
620 PM CDT Thursday Aug 21 2008 


Aviation... 
cumulus will dissipate after the loss of daytime heating and cirrus 
should be the main cloud group across North Texas overnight. Winds 
will be slightly higher than last night and moisture a little 
less. Therefore only included a 5sm br sct025 in the metroplex for 
the early morning hours. Scattered afternoon cumulus will occur at all taf 
sites tomorrow with scattered-broken middle and high clouds. Light south-southeast winds 
will become more southerly during the overnight hours before 
backing again to the south-southeast. Speeds will increase by noon tomorrow 
with speeds of 9-11 kts. 


Thunderstorms and rain which affected Waco earlier are diminishing and should not be 
a problem the rest of the night. Thunderstorms and rain chances are even less at 
Waco tomorrow afternoon so will leave out of tafs. Waco will have 
deeper moisture and another round of MVFR with tempo IFR 
conditions will be possible tomorrow morning. Ceilings will most 
likely be the main issue instead of visbys due to slightly higher 
wind speeds. Sh/13 


&& 




Previous discussion... /issued 348 PM CDT Thursday Aug 21 2008/ 
upper level trough axis will remain draped across North Texas for 
the next few days. This will maintain the chance for primarily 
afternoon showers and storms. The coverage tomorrow will be mainly 
over the southeast half of the County Warning Area...similar to today. The chances 
of hit or miss afternoon showers/storms will expand to encompass 
the entire County Warning Area over the weekend as upper level shear axis 
intensifies over the region. The best chances of significant 
rainfall or flooding will likely remain to the south of the County Warning Area 
this weekend...where an upper level low will meander around the 
del Rio area. High temperatures will warm to near or just shy of 
normal as low level thermal profiles increase...but no 100+ temperatures 
are foreseen through the next several days. Overall...mav/mex MOS 
numbers appear reasonable. 


Meanwhile...Tropical Storm Fay will begin to slowly move west 
along the northern Gulf Coast before finally getting picked up 
in the westerlies by the middle of next week. Fay will be close 
enough to North Texas for some indirect effects on Sunday and 
Monday. The large circulation of Fay should help send a weak 
front/wind shift through North Texas late Sunday with winds 
becoming northeasterly behind it. The highest coverage of 
convection will probably be on Sunday along/ahead of this wind 
shift. Thereafter the drier northeast low level flow will push the 
deep moisture south of the area...so have tapered off probability of precipitation to just 
10 percent after Monday. A return to more normal late August 
weather will occur by the end of next week - with light south 
winds...highs in the middle-upper 90s...and except for the rogue 
afternoon shower...mostly sunny skies. 


Tr.92 


&& 








Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 74 94 74 93 74 / 5 10 5 30 20 
Waco, Texas 74 92 73 91 71 / 20 20 10 40 20 
Paris, Texas 71 91 71 90 70 / 10 20 10 30 20 
Denton, Texas 73 95 72 94 71 / 5 10 5 30 20 
McKinney, Texas 72 93 71 92 71 / 5 10 10 30 20 
Dallas, Texas 74 94 74 93 74 / 5 10 10 30 20 
Terrell, Texas 72 92 72 91 72 / 10 20 10 30 20 
Corsicana, Texas 73 92 73 91 72 / 20 20 10 40 20 
Temple, Texas 74 92 73 91 71 / 20 30 20 40 20 


&& 


Forward watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


13/26