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fxus63 kgrb 072039 
afdgrb 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Green Bay WI 
339 PM CDT sun Sep 7 2008 


Short term...tonight and Monday. 


Showers and thunderstorms tonight and rain tomorrow are the main 
concerns in the short term. Radar mosaic at 20z indicated a line 
of showers and thunderstorms from north-central into western 
Wisconsin. This was associated with an upper short wave. Hail is a 
concern with the stronger storms since wet bulb zero heights were 
mostly in the 6-7kft range on the 12z grb...inl and mpx soundings 
and there have been reports of pea size hail in north central 
Wisconsin this afternoon. There were also scattered showers and 
isolated thunderstorms west of this line...closer to a surface 
cold front in northwest Wisconsin. Have kept at least scattered 
showers and isolated thunderstorms across most of the forecast 
area through 06z. This may be a little too long but would rather 
remain on the cautious side. 


Another system is expected to move toward the region during the 
day on Monday. Models appear to agree with quantitative precipitation forecast in our southeast 
counties for Monday...mainly in the afternoon. Have probability of precipitation 
approaching likely in that area...decreasing to slight chance in 
north central Wisconsin. 


Long term...Monday night through next Sunday. Synoptic scale system 
moving northeast from the Southern Plains Monday and Monday night 
is the first challenge for this forecast period. There was decent 
agreement among the 12z models about the northward extent of the 
precipitation...and have formatted the forecast accordingly. Did 
notice that the 18z NAM keeps much of the rain further south...so 
evening shift will have to monitor latest model trends and 
possibly make adjustments. After that moves through it looks like 
nice late Summer weather Tuesday and Wednesday. A frost possible 
Tuesday night in the north...though that/S not really out of the 
Ordinary for this time of year. Shortwave trough should move 
through Thursday with some showers and thunderstorms. It looked 
like Ike could slow down the moevment of this system a few days 
ago...but now looks to be too far away to have much of an effect 
for the northern stream systems. && 


Aviation... 
expect MVFR ceilings and visibilities during the afternoon and 
early evening hours...especially in the vicinity of thunderstorms. 
After that VFR conditions should prevail through midday Monday. 
&& 


Grb watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 
Mg/rdm