799 
fxus63 kmkx 290907 
afdmkx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 
407 am CDT Friday Aug 29 2008 


Forecast focus on fog this morning...quiet weather through the 
weekend. 


Latest water vapor imagery indicated a broad upper level trough 
over the western Great Lakes region. Slight upstream ridging was 
noted over the Pacific northwest...with an amplified downstream 
ridge over far eastern Canada. At the surface....a cold front was 
exiting the region...while high pressure was located over the 
Central Plains. 


Short term...today through Tuesday... 


Decoupled winds and dew points in the upper 50s to middle 60s have 
combined to bring areas of fog. Some has been dense in 
spots...with a couple locations going below 1/4 mile at times. 
However...these occurrences have been on and off so far 
overnight...given light winds being observed at times. 


Feel that the best way to handle this would be to mention areas of 
fog with patchy dense fog early this morning. Do not see a need 
for a dense fog advisory at this time...as dense fog is not 
widespread enough for a long enough time to warrant its issuance. 
Mixing with daytime heating should end fog by middle morning. 


High pressure then expected to move across the region later today 
through Saturday...then move slowly eastward through Tuesday. The 
high should combine with an amplified upper level ridge to provide 
a dry stretch of weather for Labor Day weekend. Lower dew points 
should bring a more comfortable airmass. Onshore winds each day 
will keep high temperatures in the 70s near the lake...with warmer 
80s inland. 


Long term...Tuesday night through Thursday... 


Differences between the European model (ecmwf) and GFS occur during this time. The 
GFS takes a cold front through the area on Wednesday...then exits 
to the south Wednesday night. The European model (ecmwf) keeps this feature west of 
the state. More differences abound for later in the week with the 
following system. Given these differences...will maintain wording 
for this period...and will watch the long range models for future 
continuity before making major changes to the forecast. 


&& 


Aviation... 


Areas of LIFR fog through 13z. As low level winds increase a bit 
as surface low exits Southern Lake Michigan area...visibilities 
should improve. Scattered afternoon cumulus around 4 thousand feet. 


&& 


Mkx watches/warnings/advisories... 
WI...none. 
Lm...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Short/long term...08/wood 
aviation/marine...06/hentz