834 
fxus63 kgrb 300854 
afdgrb 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Green Bay WI 
354 am CDT Sat Aug 30 2008 


Short term...today through Sunday. Very summerlike weather 
expected today through Sunday with temperatures 5 to 10 degrees 
above normal and sunny skies. Weak gradient winds today will allow 
for decent inland penetration of lake and Bay breezes...but water 
has warmed considerably from earlier in the season so cooling is 
not that dramatic. Stronger gradient winds will keep lake breeze 
confined close to the shore Sunday. 


Long term...Sunday night through next Friday. Main forecast pblm through the 
Holiday weekend to be on temperatures as upper ridge dominates NE WI weather. 
The big forecast challenge arrives during the middle to late part of next 
week and centers around the eventual movement of 'gustav' and precipitation 
chances for the region. 


Upper trough moves inland over the western Continental U.S. While the core of the upper 
ridge remains parked over the Great Lakes Sunday night. NE WI to reside 
on the western flank of this upper ridge and with the surface hi to be 
situated over the eastern Great Lakes...a broad southerly wind will prevail 
for the forecast area. These winds are expected to prevent temperatures from 
falling too far with most readings in the 55 to 60 degree range. All 
eyes on Labor Day will be on the approach of hrcn 'gustav' as it 
approaches land over the deep south. The subsident area north of 
the tropical system will only help to reinforce the upper ridge 
situated/dominating the NE quarter of the Continental U.S.. persistent 
southerly winds will continue to draw warmer...more moist air into NE WI 
on Monday with temperatures away from Lake Michigan reaching into the middle to upper 80s. 


Little change expected headed into Monday night as the upper trough pushes 
into The Rockies...the upper ridge holding firm over the eastern Great Lakes 
and 'gustav' reaching landfall. More moisture in the air will keep min 
temperatures on the mild side considering it is early sept. Look for 
temperatures to remain in the 60s Monday night. Changes begin to develop by Tuesday as 
the upper trough lifts northeastward toward the northern plains and 'gustav' is 
prognosticated to be moving inland over the deep south. The upper trough 
movement would help push a cold front eastward into the upper Midwest by 00z 
Wednesday...but still be too far away to influence any weather for NE 
WI. Maximum temperatures should be similar (perhaps a degree warmer) to Monday as 
milder start to the day is balanced by a bit more in the way of 
clouds as deeper Gulf moisture arrives. 


The forecast for the middle to later part of next week will essentially 
come down to where the remnants of 'gustav' GOES. For Wednesday...the 
cold front should push into the western Great Lakes as the upper trough continues to 
lift northeastward into SW Ontario by 00z Thursday. Even though forcing and 
instability Apr marginal...the lift from the fnt and moisture in place 
should bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to NE WI on Wednesday. Model 
uncertainty becomes very pronounced by Wednesday night into Thursday as the 
European model (ecmwf) is persistent in bringing the remains of the hrcn northward through 
the Central Plains into the Midwest...while the GFS holds 'gustav' 
over the deep south. It should be noted that the Gem has made a 
deviation from its previous forecast and now sides with the European model (ecmwf). Even 
so...the vast difference in possible solutions remains for Thursday and Friday and 
prefer to not make any major changes to this part of the forecast until 
better model continuity exists. 
&& 


Aviation...VFR with a nearly clear sky today and tonight. 
&& 


Grb watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 
Rdm/kallas