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fxus63 kmkx 300759 
afdmkx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 
259 am CDT Sat Aug 30 2008 


Forecast focus on quiet weather through Tuesday...precipitation 
chances later next week. 


Latest water vapor imagery indicated an upper level trough over 
southeast Canada...with a weak upstream ridge over the northern 
High Plains. At the surface...high pressure was centered over 
southeast Iowa. 


Short term...today through Tuesday night... 


Calm winds and clear skies may result in patchy fog in low lying 
areas early this morning. Will wait until near issuance time to 
see if it becomes widespread enough to mention in the forecast. 


High pressure is expected to slowly move east over the weekend and 
into early next week...as an amplified upper level ridge builds 
across the Great Lakes region. This setup will continue to bring 
dry conditions and mild temperatures to the area. Onshore winds 
near Lake Michigan will keep highs in the 70s there...with warmer 
80s inland. Persistence type forecast for temperatures seems 
reasonable for this period. Dry dew points should keep cumulus rule 
values in positive range...limiting fair weather cumulus cloud 
development during the afternoon hours. 


Long term...Wednesday through Friday... 


Main issue for the latter half of next week is whether the 
remnants from Gustav will affect the area. The European model (ecmwf) and GFS paint 
two different scenarios. The European model (ecmwf) brings the remnants of Gustav 
from eastern Texas and Louisiana northward through Missouri and 
into the area Thursday through Friday. 


The GFS keeps Gustav over eastern Texas and Louisiana and weakens 
it there...keeping its moisture from flowing northward. This does 
allow the GFS to bring a cold front through the area on 
Wednesday...while the European model (ecmwf) is slower with the frontal passage. 


Given the continued uncertainty in this period...will maintain the 
low chance probability of precipitation already in the forecast. 


&& 


Aviation... 


Hi pressure to keep VFR conditions in place through the forecast 
period. Local ground fog at night with MVFR visibilities will be handled on 
a site-by-site basis...but widespread fog not expected. 


&& 


Mkx watches/warnings/advisories... 
WI...none. 
Lm...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Short/long term...08/wood 
aviation/marine...09/rem