050 
fxus63 kgrb 032110 
afdgrb 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Green Bay WI 
310 PM CST Wednesday Dec 3 2008 


Short term...tonight through Thursday... 


At 20z, cold front located over eastern lower Michigan as upper 
wave shifting east through WI. Snow band continuing to shift east 
through the Fox Valley with back edge extending from grb to just 
west of osh. Elsewhere skies clearing out over central WI this 
afternoon with lake effect showers/clouds moving off Lake Superior 
over parts of north central WI. 


Main concerns this period are current headlines and les threat. 
Will cancel advisory with this issuance with little additional 
accumulation expected. Cold air advection pattern to bring subsidence and 
lessening of clouds over much of the area tonight as drier air 
moves in...dew points in the single digits. Have lowered temperatures 
tonight...though expect wind will keep from totally tanking. 


Second upper wave to move in on Thursday. Models indicate some increase 
in relative humidity with system and with low level lapse rates approaching 6 will 
bring in increasing clouds and keep previous flurry mention. 


Les potential for north central peaking at this time with winds expected 
to back to the west this evening. Call to spotter northwest Vilas indicated 
showers all day...though amounts limited to less than an inch. 
Likely due to moisture limitation upstream. 


Long term...Thursday night through Wednesday 


Northwest upper flow prevails through the period...with a few 
shortwave troughs moving through the upper flow. The first one 
approaches Friday night and Saturday. There is decent upper 
support but not that much moisture. This clipper system should 
be enough to squeeze out 1 to 3 inches since the air is initially 
quite cold. The next upper system is forecast to be stronger...and 
has the potential to produce an advisory criteria snow... 
especially in the north. 50 knot 850 mb winds forecast by GFS at 
12z Monday in a very strong warm advection pattern. As the two 
upper systems mentioned above move through...there is the 
potential for lake efect snow in northcentral Wisconsin. Light 
lake effect snow expected Saturday as the air is quite dry and 
inversion height is Low. Lake effect also possible Monday night 
and part of Tuesday. Winds look nearly ideal for 6 to 12 
hours...but the air will also be very dry. 
&& 


Aviation... 


Weak high pressure to move in tonight...bring lessening of clouds 
with VFR ceilings expected tonight...exception rhi and vicnity as les 
clouds showers move off Lake Superior. Second upper disturbance to 
move through state on Thursday. Mainly MVFR ceilings expected with few 
flurries. 
&& 


Grb watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 
Te/rdm