963 
fxus61 krlx 200807 
afdrlx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Charleston WV 
405 am EDT Wednesday Aug 20 2008 


Synopsis... 
high pressure will dominate through the first half of the weekend. A 
weak front will drape over the region late Sunday into Monday. 
Remnants of Fay may impact the area towards the middle of next week. 


&& 


Near term /through Thursday/... 
stagnant weather pattern continues as high pressure at the surface 
and aloft dominates. Even the weak cool front that attempted to 
drive south across our area overnight was very hard to find this 
early morning...having lost all its support. What remains is a 
bridging of one high pressure system over the Great Lakes with the 
one over our area. As the main surface high shifts into New England 
this afternoon...surface winds become more easterly. Almost cloud 
free skies and modest downslope winds to the west of the mountains 
will lead to even slightly warmer temperatures this afternoon than 
yesterday...while modest upslope winds in the mountains will keep 
temperatures about the same as yesterday. Slightly warmer Thursday to 
around 90 in many low lying areas...except in the mountains with 
stronger upslope flow. 


&& 


Short term /Thursday night through Saturday night/... 
upper high still controls our weather...continued dry with slightly 
above normal daytime temperatures. 500mb vorticity lobe will skim 
through the area Thursday night...but moisture scant. Only looking 
at some thin high clouds with this feature. All models wait until 
after short term period to bring next front into the area...and keep 
remnants of Fay well to sour south. 


&& 


Long term /Sunday through Tuesday/... 
models have now resolved more of a separation between the front that 
impacts the area late Sunday into Monday...and the potential 
remnants of Fay which appears in both GFS and European model (ecmwf) to wait until 
midweek. 


Southern periphery of the westerlies first sends a weak front our 
way. GFS is about 12 hours faster than European model (ecmwf)...by passing it through 
middle to late Sunday versus late Sunday night or Monday morning. 
Regardless...the front stalls out just to our south Monday into 
Tuesday before potentially merging with possible remains of Fay and 
coming back northward over the County Warning Area around midweek. Because 
uncertainty in timing of both the front and remnants of Fay...I 
opted not to put a focus of higher probability of precipitation into any one particular 
period at this time...and generally kept the range of probability of precipitation in the 
20s and 30s percent range. 


&& 


Aviation /07z Wednesday through Sunday/... 
06z Wednesday through 06z Thursday... 
mainly MVFR patchy river and valley fog early this Wednesday morning 
with a bit more boundary layer wind. Exception...of course...is ekn 
with IFR until 12z. Otherwise...expect VFR mostly clear this period. 


Aviation outlook /beyond 06z Thursday/... 
some patchy river and valley fog again early Thursday 
morning...otherwise no significant weather expected. 


&& 


Rlx watches/warnings/advisories... 
WV...none. 
Ohio...none. 
Kentucky...none. 
Virginia...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...mdp/jmv 
near term...jmv 
short term...mdp 
long term...mdp 
aviation...jmv