247 
fxus61 krlx 080137 
afdrlx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Charleston WV 
937 PM EDT sun Sep 7 2008 


Synopsis... 
high pressure prevails through the day Monday. A cold front will 
pass through with showers and thunderstorms Tuesday...followed by 
high pressure Wednesday into Thursday. Another front expected Friday. 


&& 


Near term /through Monday/... 
River Valley fog should be less widespread and later in forming 
than 24 hours ago. 


Weak vorticity maximum passing through 06z helping to keep a few 
leftover high base stratocumulus around this evening. 


Raised maximum temperature Monday a degree in a few places based 
on maximum temperatures on Sunday. 


&& 


Short term /Monday night through Wednesday night/... 
main feature of this period is a well advertised cold front that 
will pass through during the day Tuesday...with finally a good 
chance of rain for the area. After our recent weeks of mostly dry 
weather...this will mark the beginning of a busier weather pattern 
that is no longer dominated by upper high/ridge. 


Best dynamics of the incoming system are contained within the 
northern stream with strong upper trough passing through the Great 
Lakes. However...there will still be a fairly decent trailing cold 
front...helped by southern stream shortwave that zips through the 
upper flow. Storm Prediction Center contains central to eastern County Warning Area within slight risk 
for severe thunderstorms. Will continue mention within severe weather potential statement...but not 
within grids yet because of the iffy nature of the risk. 0-6km shear 
is roughly 35-40 kts or so...which is marginal. Also...frontal 
passage details have teetered run-to-run...with latest models 
suggesting more of a morning /west/ to early afternoon /east/ 
timing. Regardless...most if not all of the area will at least get 
some rain...with good model agreement on precipitable water reaching 
above 1.5 inches. Raised probability of precipitation well into likely range east of the 
Ohio River /better diurnal timing/...with still 40-50 range west. 


High pressure center passes through eastern lakes Wednesday...with 
our County Warning Area under its influence...resulting in cooler temperatures. Very 
slight probability of precipitation in far southern zones /possible hangup of 
front/...otherwise dry. 


&& 


Long term /Thursday through Sunday/... 
plenty of uncertainty exists in the models and ensembles in the 
details during the long term /including what to eventually do with 
Hurricane Ike/...but the general busier pattern of a zonal flow with 
repeated disturbances looks to continue. Most obvious one is 
Friday...with a cold front that has been showing up in the last few 
runs of both GFS and European model (ecmwf). There is suggestion /especially European model (ecmwf)/ 
that this front could hang up within our vicinity into the weekend 
for additional chances of rain. Generally accepted HPC forecast for 
the long term with only minor tweaks...which has middle chance range 
probability of precipitation for Friday and beyond. As for Hurricane Ike...models continue 
to fluctuate but the trend is to bring it all the way to somewhere 
in the western Gulf...thus its effects on our weather /if any/ are 
still delayed beyond the scope of this forecast. 


&& 


Aviation /02z Monday through Friday/... 
18z Sunday through 00z Tuesday... 
at sunset Sunday the air mass is warmer and drier than 24 hours ago. 
Also some scattered clouds at 6 to 9 thousand feet may linger through 06z. 


Will delay any River Valley fog formation an hour or two... 
developing into IFR and LIFR between 06 and 09z then lifting after 
12z. Also went a bit more variable in the visibility in that fog between 
09z-12z. 


Otherwise VFR. 


Aviation outlook /beyond 00z Tuesday/...IFR weather possible in rain shower/thunderstorm Tuesday. 


&& 


Rlx watches/warnings/advisories... 
WV...none. 
Ohio...none. 
Kentucky...none. 
Virginia...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...mdp/jmv 
near term...ktb/jmv 
short term...mdp 
long term...mdp 
aviation...ktb