783 
fxus61 krnk 160149 
afdrnk 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Blacksburg Virginia 
949 PM EDT Wednesday Oct 15 2008 


Synopsis... 
a ridge of high pressure will remain over the southeast United 
States into tonight. A cold front will move slowly southeast and 
across the region tonight and down into the Carolinas on 
Friday. Cooler high pressure will build into the region for the 
weekend. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 am Thursday morning/... 
ridge of high pressure encompassing the southeast and Middle Atlantic 
States through this evening. This ridge will drift farther to the 
south and erode from the north as a cold front approaches the area 
from the Ohio Valley. Clouds are expected to thicken and lower 
overnight which will keep temperatures rather warm and about 15f 
above normal. With the bulk of the jet dynamic remaining in the 
Ohio Valley through Thursday morning and zonal flow aloft...not 
expecting any rain to fall overnight. Light rain showers may be in 
the vicinity of western slopes of Greenbrier County after sunrise 


Wednesday evening have made some tweaks to both temperature and 
cloud cover grids to reflect latest trends. Have made limited 
changes to previous expected low temperatures. 


&& 


Short term /6 am Thursday morning through Saturday night/... 
front still on schedule to move into the area Thursday night then 
slowly sink south through the Carolinas Friday and Friday night. 
Clouds will thicken through the day tmrw and look for some showers 
to move into the west by late in the day. Models are in good 
agreement with the evolution of the front through the period. The 
best dynamics will move well north of the forecast area and Gulf 
moisture is cut off by deep zonal flow across the south. So not 
expecting much quantitative precipitation forecast Thursday night and Friday as the front moves 
through. But the front will bring in much cooler air for the weekend. 


The wave that models are developing on the front across the 
southeast on Friday continues to progressively get pushed south by 
each model cycle...so now the bulk of the rain moves across the 
Carolinas. Cannot rule out our southern sections catching some of 
this rain through Friday night. 


Strong...sharp...but dry upper wave dropping southeast from the 
Midwest early Saturday will give a final push to the front and bring 
the coolest air of the season so far to the region. High pressure 
will establish itself SW to NE up The Spine of the southern Apps and 
produce dry weather through the remainder of the weekend. 


&& 


Long term /Sunday through Wednesday/... 
upper flow is mostly zonal early next week with the appalachian high 
slowly dropping south. Another wave coming through the Great Lakes 
Monday will bring a dry backdoor front into the area by Tuesday 
morning before it washes out. Then upper ridging rebuilds over the 
middle-Atlantic with seasonal conditions. 


&& 


Aviation /02z Thursday through Monday/... 
high pressure will continue VFR conditions through tonight. A 
cold front approaches the region from the Ohio Valley 
tonight...clouds will thicken and lower but should maintain VFR 
through the taf period. MVFR ceilings and rain showers may come 
into the (lwb-blf) Thursday afternoon...but dry airmass looks like 
it will keep ceilings VFR for now...so left MVFR out. With zonal flow 
aloft...areal coverage of rain will diminish moving east and 
become isolated/scattered by the time it reaches the Blue Ridge. 
Isolated convection is possible east of the Blue Ridge Thursday 
afternoon and evening as the front moves across the area. 


Some patchy fog is possible along the new...Greenbrier and upper 
James rivers tonight. Lwb may have a brief period of IFR to MVFR fog 
if thickening clouds are delayed. 


The cold front will move into the southeast coastal states on Friday 
with dry air filtering into the middle Atlantic region. An upper level 
trough could bring MVFR ceilings and showers to western slopes of southeast 
WV early Saturday morning. Otherwise...a dry VFR weekend is expected. 


&& 


Climate... 
ridge beginning to break down as front approaches...but our lows 
tonight may stay on the mild side. Highs out east tomorrow may 
climb toward records...if the clouds slow in increasing. 






Oct 16 (thu) record high minimums 
roa 64 in 1947 
lyh 65 in 1928 
Dan 64 in 1966 
blf 60 in 1984 
rnk 58 in 1968 


Oct 16 (thu) record highs 
roa 85 in 1930 
lyh 89 in 1897 
Dan 89 in 1985 
blf 81 in 1989 
rnk 80 in 1992 


&& 


Rnk watches/warnings/advisories... 
Virginia...none. 
NC...none. 
WV...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...rcs 
near term...ds/rcs 
short term...js 
long term...js 
aviation...rcs/wp 
climate...