529 
fxus61 krlx 231023 
afdrlx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Charleston WV 
522 am EST Monday Nov 23 2009 


Synopsis... 
upper level systems traverse the area today and tonight. Cold front 
moves east Wednesday...with a stronger front Wednesday night. Upper 
level low to affect the area during the Thanksgiving weekend. 


&& 


Near term /through tonight/... 
models in decent agreement in the short term. Vorticity lobe 
creating a band of precipitation early this morning. Tried timing 
this feature northward...which is a bit faster than models indicate. 
Another vorticity lobe moves over this evening...so timed probability of precipitation with 
this feature as well. Both models show a decent stratus deck 
tonight...which seems reasonable looking at the southeast US 
currently. Therefore went warmer than MOS guidance for lows. 


&& 


Short term /Tuesday through Thursday night/... 
upper level features that will produce the rain across portions of 
the forecast area should be east of region by the beginning of the 
period. However...there could be sufficient low-level moisture 
across the northern mountain counties for a slight chance of rain 
early Tuesday. 


Weak high pressure should result in dry weather into Tuesday night. 
However...an area of low pressure will move to northern 
Illinois/southern Wisconsin early Wednesday...while a weak cold 
front approaches the area from the west. These features will result 
in increasing rain showers Tuesday night into Wednesday. 


The weak front pushes east on Wednesday....with another stronger 
front expected Wednesday night into Thursday. In addition...models 
indicate an upper low will approach from the west Thursday into 
Thursday. All of these features will result in a continued chance 
of showers Wednesday night into Thursday night. 


Guidance for highs Tuesday as well as lows Tuesday night...Wednesday 
night and Thursday night were close to previous numbers...and will 
generally be followed. 


New guidance for highs Wednesday and Thursday came in warmer than 
previous forecast. In fact...the new readings were as much as 10 
degrees warmer. Feel these values are too warm...but tweaked highs 
up toward the new guidance...more on Wednesday as colder airmass 
should not move in until Wednesday night. 


&& 


Long term /Friday through Sunday/... 
on Thursday a secondary upper low will drop south and move east 
towards the Great Lakes region...deepening the upper level 
trough...and sweeping a secondary cold front across the County Warning Area. This 
will usher in much cooler temperatures into the forecast area. 
Models soundings and 1000-500mb thicknesses suggest snow will be 
possible Friday morning across much of the higher terrain...northern 
WV...and southeast Ohio...with a rain/snow mix over much of the West 
Virginia lowlands. Much of the precipitation will gradually taper 
off as the day progresses on Friday...however...strong northwest winds 
aloft will keep upslope showers going over the higher terrain for 
much of the day. Precipitation will taper off across the region on 
Saturday...as high pressure builds in briefly. Models indicating 
another system moving into the region late in the extended. 


&& 


Aviation /12z Monday through Friday/... 
vorticity lobe moving northward over the region producing a band of 
light rain. Dry air at the surface is limiting restrictions 
however...with just MVFR at worse due to the precipitation. Some 
lower ceilings can be expected early this morning along the eastern 
slopes of the mountains. Behind this disturbance...a stratus deck 
will be forming. This will keep IFR/MVFR clouds on the eastern 
slopes of the mountains...with VFR on the western slopes...and VFR 
or MVFR in Kentucky and Ohio today. The stratus deck will also 
persist tonight...although another band of precipitation could cause 
some restrictions. 


After 12z Tuesday... 
IFR/LIFR conditions possible across the eastern slopes of the WV 
mountains Tuesday morning due to low clouds. 


&& 


Rlx watches/warnings/advisories... 
WV...none. 
Ohio...none. 
Kentucky...none. 
Virginia...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...jsh/sl/rpy 
near term...rpy 
short term...jsh 
long term...sl 
aviation...rpy