211 
FXPQ60 PGUM 222009
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
609 AM CHST MON NOV 23 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
TD 26W STILL ABOUT 460 SSE OF GUAM...AND CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH
IT HAS DECREASED DRAMATICALLY IN THE LAST 24 HR. MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE MARIANAS. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STILL A TON OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE FUTURE TRACK/INTENSITY
OF TD 26W. ITS CLOUD SIGNATURE HAS GREATLY DECLINED SINCE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND THE CONVECTIVE EMPHASIS SEEMS TO BE SHIFTING EAST
TOWARD CHUUK...THOUGH PRESSURE IS NOT FALLING THERE. CURRENT
FORECAST HAS TD 26W TRACKING SAFELY SOUTH OF GUAM ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...WHICH MIGHT RESULT IN SOME GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
SHOWERS FOR THE MARIANAS. BUT THE MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT ON
26W...WITH THE UKMET/ECMWF KEEPING 26W WELL SOUTH...THE NOGAPS
TRACKING IT FURTHER NORTH...AND THE GFS TAKING IT PRACTICALLY OVER
GUAM. SO HAVE STAYED WITH THE CURRENT SET OF GRIDS...WHICH WOULD
STILL VERIFY WELL IF TD 26W FOLLOWS THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST.
OF COURSE...IF 26W DECIDES TO TAKE THE GFS ROUTE...MAJOR CHANGES
WOULD HAVE TO BE MADE TO THE MARIANAS FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE/SURF...
WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF BELOW SCA LIMITS AND SEAS HAVE FALLEN TO 9
FT IN GUAM/ROTA WATERS. BUT SEAS STILL EXPECTED TO BE 10 FT IN
TINIAN/SAIPAN WATERS...SO HAVE A SCA FOR HAZ SEAS UP THERE THE
NEXT 2 DAYS. STILL HOLDING SURF JUST BELOW HAZARDOUS LEVELS...BUT
NEEDS TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED...ESPECIALLY TINIAN AND SAIPAN.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A WEAK RIDGE BETWEEN 26W AND A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE EAST OF THE 
MARSHALLS WILL ALLOW FAVORABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT 
KOSRAE THROUGH MIDWEEK. RIDGING WILL EASE WEST OVER POHNPEI ON 
TUESDAY IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS THERE. THE TRADE DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MAJURO THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE
MOVING WEST LATER ON.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
CONVERGENT WINDS FEEDING INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W WILL CONTINUE 
TO GENERATE NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER CHUUK TODAY AND TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL
2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN AND WINDS GUSTS TO 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS EVENING. AS 26W PULLS NORTH AND WEST...WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD
WESTWARD OVER CHUUK BY MIDWEEK USHERING IN MORE FAVORABLE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. WEATHER OVER YAP/KOROR WILL GENERALLY REMAIN PLEASANT
THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS. WILL WATCH CLOSELY FOR THE FORMATION OF A
MONSOON TAIL ASSOCIATED WITH 26W THOUGH...WHICH COULD BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO BOTH LOCATIONS LATER IN THE WEEK.

FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH 26W HAVE PRODUCED 
LARGE SWELL AND WIND WAVES THAT HAVE ARRIVED IN CHUUK STATE. LATEST 
WW3 MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST SURF HEIGHTS OF ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH 
MIDWEEK. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR SOUTH AND WEST EXPOSURES OF CHUUK 
REMAINS IN EFFECT ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 
     6 AM CHST WEDNESDAY FOR PMZ153-154.

&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/LEE