082 
FXUS61 KBOX 231528
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1028 AM EST MON NOV 23 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTS TODAY WILL PASS EAST OF CAPE COD
LATE TUESDAY...POSSIBLY AS A GALE NOREASTER. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE COVERS
NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY. A LARGE GALE WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY THEN MOVE INTO THE MARITIMES THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS MOVING UP IN A ZONE ACROSS RI AND EASTERN CT BUT NOT FARTHER
EAST. MOST REPORTS SO FAR ARE OF TRACE LEVEL SHOWERS/SPRINKLES BUT
THIS SHOULD CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LIFT GENERATES MORE
PRECIP AND THE LOWER AIRMASS MOISTENS. WE HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO
LIKELY A LITTLE EARLIER ALONG THE RI COAST AND AROUND BUZZARDS
BAY...AND BLENDED THIS INTO THE ORIGINAL TIMING FOR ONSET.

TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ARE MOSTLY IN AGREEMENT WITH FORECAST...A
FEW SCATTERED MINOR DIFFERENCES. WINDS ARE A FEW KNOTS
STRONGER...THIS UPDATE BUMPS SUSTAINED WINDS INTO THE MID 20S ON THE
SOUTHERN WATERS BASED IN PART ON OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SHORT RANGE MODELS STILL HAVING TROUBLE LOCKING IN ON TRACK AND 
INTENSITY OF THE APPROACHING LOW. APPEARS THE GFS AND RGEM WERE 
OUTLIERS AS COMPARED TO MOST OF THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS...SO 
LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE NON-GFS ENSEMBLES WITH A LITTLE 
CONTRIBUTION FROM THE SREF. APPEARS THE LOW WILL PASS SE OF 
NANTUCKET TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LIKELY-CATEGORICAL 
POPS TONIGHT...THEN WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW... 
FEEL THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE...BUT SOME HEAVIER 
RAINS MAY CLIP THE CAPE AND ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. 

MODELS DID NOT HANDLE LOWS FOR TONIGHT WELL AT ALL CONSIDERING THE 
ONSHORE FLOW AS WELL AS PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER...SO LEANED TOWARD A 
BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE MOS GUIDANCE WITH 
ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR SOMEWHAT MILDER READINGS. KEPT TEMPS 
ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL LOCATIONS...AND STILL MAY BE A BIT TOO COLD 
OVER S NH /MID-UPPER 30S FORECAST FOR NOW/. AS FOR MONDAY...LEANED 
TOWARD PREVIOUS FORECAST ALONG WITH THE 2M NAM/GFS TEMPS WHICH TEND 
TO REMOVE THE MOS SEASONAL EFFECTS. WENT WITH READINGS IN THE 
LOWER-MID 50S.

ONLY OTHER PROBLEM COULD BE A BRIEF WIND INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO 
TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE KEPT WINDS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR CAPE 
COD AND THE ISLANDS FOR NOW...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS IN CASE 
THE LOW IS A BIT STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...AS WELL AS MOVES 
A BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODEL UNCERTAINTY TUE NIGHT-THU MORNING LEADS TO A BELOW AVG CONFIDENCE
ON FCST DETAILS THIS PERIOD THEN HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR COMBINED GREAT
LAKES COASTAL MERGER THU NIGHT OR FRI FOLLOWED BY HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
A DEVELOPING BLUSTERY WEEKEND.

TUE NIGHT-THU...MAINTAINED CONSIDERABLE CONTINUITY WITH THE 4PM SUNDAY
KBOX FCST DUE TO THE VARIOUS MODEL OUTPUTS. OVERALL..LEFTOVER R OR 
DRIZZLE TUE NIGHT. PROBABLY DRY WED INTO EARLY THU BUT AM UNCERTAIN
DUE THE RESULTANT SFC WX BEING DEPENDENT ON SUBTLE BL WIND
DIRECTION/ASSOCIATED TERRAIN LIFT. THE 00Z GFS MOS WAS NOT HEAVILY
WEIGHTED...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING CLEARING AND THE OUTPUT OF
THE NAM AND GGEM TEMP FIELDS. 

LATE THU INTO THE WKND...BLV MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS SOME SORT OF LOW PRES
MOVING TO NEW ENGLAND WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS. THUNDER IS POSSIBLE
BUT DID NOT FCST IN THE GRIDS OR WRITE INTO THE HWO AS ITS DAY 5.
FOR THE COAST THIS COULD BE EITHER OR BOTH A BRIEF ELY GALE FRI
FOLLOWED BY A BLUSTERY WKND WITH POCKETS OF WLY GALE FORCE GUSTS.
TEMPS WERE MODIFIED AT NIGHT...UPWARD DUE TO EXPECTED MIXING AND THE
00Z/23 GFS MOS. 

EROSION...CONSTANCY OF ONSHORE FLOW AND LARGE ELY OCEAN SWELLS OF 10
FEET TUE INTO WED AND POSSIBLY AGAIN FRI. WE CANT FCST THE EXTENT OF
EROSION BUT IT COULD BE SIGNIFICANT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TODAY...GENERALLY MVFR MIDDAY EXCEPT AN AREA OF HIGHER CIGS OVER THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS. EXPECT FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR/IFR DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND FOG. 

TONIGHT...MVFR-IFR CIGS EXPECTED...WITH LOCAL LIFR CIGS POSSIBLE ON 
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. AREAS OF MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN RAIN AND FOG.

TUESDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN MAINLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. 
MAY SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CT 
VALLEY.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY. LOW CONFIDENCE.

GENERALLY VFR INTERIOR THOUGH WITH A PERIOD OF IFR ST/FOG EARLY WED
AND EARLY THU.

ALONG THE COAST-ESP CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...GENERALLY MVFR OR IFR
CIGS OUTLOOKED. LEFTOVER RAIN/DRIZZLE TUE NIGHT.


THU NIGHT AND FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF IFR CONDS IN RAIN WITH A PERIOD
OF GUSTY E 25 TO 35 KT COAST...POSSIBLY SHIFTING TO W FRI AFTN ALONG
WITH IMPROVING CONDS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...E-NE WINDS WITH SUSTAINED VALUES AROUND 25 KNOTS OVER THE
SOUTHERN WATERS AND GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS. UPDATED THE FORECAST TO
REFLECT THESE VALUES BETTER. THE 00Z WNA WAVEWATCH MODEL WAS RUNNING
A FOOT OR SO TOO LOW THIS MORNING. BUOY 008 WELL SE OF NANTUCKET UP
TO 10 FEET ALREADY AT 09Z AND BUOY 018 UP TO 7 FEET. HAVE INCREASED
THE SEAS ON THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH THE LOW PASSING SE OF NANTUCKET LATE 
TONIGHT...MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS ON THE OUTER 
WATERS AS WELL AS NANTUCKET SOUND AND CAPE COD BAY. HAVE PUT UP A 
GALE WATCH FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR THIS 
POSSIBILITY. WAVEWATCH HAS ALSO FORECASTED SEAS UP TO 13 FEET ON THE 
EASTERN OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LEFTOVER SCA CONDS TUE EVENING SHIFT TO HAZARDOUS SEAS SCA WED AND THU
IN THE OUTER WATERS THEN ANOTHER GALE CONDITION POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NWS BOSTON-TAUNTON POINT AND CLICK HAS DELAYS IN UPDATING BY ABOUT 45 
MINUTES- A CONTINUING RECENT PROBLEM. 

TDWR IN THE BOSTON AREA CONTS OTS UFN. 

44020...ANY PROBLEM WITH THIS NANTUCKET SOUND BUOY WILL PROBABLY BE
UPDATED ON ITS MAINTENANCE LINK BY NDBC LATER TODAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR 
     ANZ232-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ232-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ233>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR 
     ANZ231-250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ231.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ251.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR 
     ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/EVT/WTB
MARINE...DRAG/EVT/WTB
EQUIPMENT...DRAG

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