449 
FXUS61 KBOX 231023
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
523 AM EST MON NOV 23 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTS TODAY WILL PASS EAST OF CAPE COD
LATE TUESDAY...POSSIBLY AS A GALE NOREASTER. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE COVERS
NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY. A LARGE GALE WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY THEN MOVE INTO THE MARITIMES THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRES HAS MADE ITS WAY TO NOVA SCOTIA EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS 
CONTINUE TO SIGNAL LOW PRES DEVELOPING OFF THE SE U.S. COAST... 
TRACKING NE DURING THE DAY. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS 
DEVELOPING LOW AND THE HIGH WILL CAUSE E-NE WINDS TO PICK UP MAINLY 
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

NOTING NORTHERN EDGE OF PRECIP REMAINING WELL S OF NEW ENGLAND ON 
THE NE REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR AT 09Z...AND REMAINING OFFSHORE EARLY 
THIS MORNING. FEEL SEVERAL OF THE MODELS TRYING TO BRING PRECIP INTO 
THE REGION TOO QUICKLY...THOUGH MIGHT SEE PATCHY DRIZZLE ALONG THE 
COAST DURING THE DAY WITH THE STEADY ONSHORE WIND. DID NOT MENTION 
IN THE ZONES OR GRIDS FOR NOW...NOT TERRIBLY CONFIDENT OF THIS RIGHT 
NOW. HOWEVER...DID BRING IN CHANCE POPS TO SOUTH COASTAL AREAS BY 
MIDDAY...REACHING S NH BY EARLY THIS EVENING. 

MODELS NOT HANDLING THE TEMP PROFILE WELL AT ALL...AT LEAST EARLY 
THIS MORNING WITH THE NON-DIURNAL STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING READINGS 
SO FAR. BY MIDDAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO REACH AROUND 50 DEGREES...AND 
MAYBE THE MID 50S ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS AS E-NE WINDS 
FRESHEN. KEPT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S-AROUND 50 INLAND. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SHORT RANGE MODELS STILL HAVING TROUBLE LOCKING IN ON TRACK AND 
INTENSITY OF THE APPROACHING LOW. APPEARS THE GFS AND RGEM WERE 
OUTLIERS AS COMPARED TO MOST OF THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS...SO 
LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE NON-GFS ENSEMBLES WITH A LITTLE 
CONTRIBUTION FROM THE SREF. APPEARS THE LOW WILL PASS SE OF 
NANTUCKET TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LIKELY-CATEGORICAL 
POPS TONIGHT...THEN WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW... 
FEEL THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE...BUT SOME HEAVIER 
RAINS MAY CLIP THE CAPE AND ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. 

MODELS DID NOT HANDLE LOWS FOR TONIGHT WELL AT ALL CONSIDERING THE 
ONSHORE FLOW AS WELL AS PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER...SO LEANED TOWARD A 
BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE MOS GUIDANCE WITH 
ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR SOMEWHAT MILDER READINGS. KEPT TEMPS 
ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL LOCATIONS...AND STILL MAY BE A BIT TOO COLD 
OVER S NH /MID-UPPER 30S FORECAST FOR NOW/. AS FOR MONDAY...LEANED 
TOWARD PREVIOUS FORECAST ALONG WITH THE 2M NAM/GFS TEMPS WHICH TEND 
TO REMOVE THE MOS SEASONAL EFFECTS. WENT WITH READINGS IN THE 
LOWER-MID 50S.

ONLY OTHER PROBLEM COULD BE A BRIEF WIND INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO 
TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE KEPT WINDS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR CAPE 
COD AND THE ISLANDS FOR NOW...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS IN CASE 
THE LOW IS A BIT STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...AS WELL AS MOVES 
A BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODEL UNCERTAINTY TUE NIGHT-THU MORNING LEADS TO A BELOW AVG CONFIDENCE
ON FCST DETAILS THIS PERIOD THEN HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR COMBINED GREAT
LAKES COASTAL MERGER THU NIGHT OR FRI FOLLOWED BY HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
A DEVELOPING BLUSTERY WEEKEND.

TUE NIGHT-THU...MAINTAINED CONSIDERABLE CONTINUITY WITH THE 4PM SUNDAY
KBOX FCST DUE TO THE VARIOUS MODEL OUTPUTS. OVERALL..LEFTOVER R OR 
DRIZZLE TUE NIGHT. PROBABLY DRY WED INTO EARLY THU BUT AM UNCERTAIN
DUE THE RESULTANT SFC WX BEING DEPENDENT ON SUBTLE BL WIND
DIRECTION/ASSOCIATED TERRAIN LIFT. THE 00Z GFS MOS WAS NOT HEAVILY
WEIGHTED...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING CLEARING AND THE OUTPUT OF
THE NAM AND GGEM TEMP FIELDS. 

LATE THU INTO THE WKND...BLV MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS SOME SORT OF LOW PRES
MOVING TO NEW ENGLAND WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS. THUNDER IS POSSIBLE
BUT DID NOT FCST IN THE GRIDS OR WRITE INTO THE HWO AS ITS DAY 5.
FOR THE COAST THIS COULD BE EITHER OR BOTH A BRIEF ELY GALE FRI
FOLLOWED BY A BLUSTERY WKND WITH POCKETS OF WLY GALE FORCE GUSTS.
TEMPS WERE MODIFIED AT NIGHT...UPWARD DUE TO EXPECTED MIXING AND THE
00Z/23 GFS MOS. 

EROSION...CONSTANCY OF ONSHORE FLOW AND LARGE ELY OCEAN SWELLS OF 10
FEET TUE INTO WED AND POSSIBLY AGAIN FRI. WE CANT FCST THE EXTENT OF
EROSION BUT IT COULD BE SIGNIFICANT. 

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TODAY...MVFR-IFR CIGS EXPECTED. MAY SEE LOCAL IFR CIGS MOVING INTO S 
COASTAL AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS MVFR VSBYS IN PATCHY 
FOG. LOW CHANCE OF LOCAL DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST.

TONIGHT...MVFR-IFR CIGS EXPECTED...WITH LOCAL LIFR CIGS POSSIBLE ON 
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. AREAS OF MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN RAIN AND FOG.

TUESDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN MAINLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. 
MAY SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CT 
VALLEY.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY. LOW CONFIDENCE.

GENERALLY VFR INTERIOR THOUGH WITH A PERIOD OF IFR ST/FOG EARLY WED
AND EARLY THU.

ALONG THE COAST-ESP CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...GENERALLY MVFR OR IFR
CIGS OUTLOOKED. LEFTOVER RAIN/DRIZZLE TUE NIGHT.


THU NIGHT AND FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF IFR CONDS IN RAIN WITH A PERIOD
OF GUSTY E 25 TO 35 KT COAST...POSSIBLY SHIFTING TO W FRI AFTN ALONG
WITH IMPROVING CONDS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...E-NE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25-30 KT MAINLY ON THE OUTER 
WATERS...THOUGH MAY REACH THE S SOUNDS BY THIS AFTERNOON. NOTED THE 
WNA WAVEWATCH MODEL WAS RUNNING A FOOT OR SO TOO LOW THIS MORNING. 
BUOY 008 WELL SE OF NANTUCKET UP TO 10 FEET ALREADY AT 09Z AND BUOY 
018 UP TO 7 FEET.  HAVE INCREASED THE SEAS ON THE OUTER COASTAL 
WATERS. 

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH THE LOW PASSING SE OF NANTUCKET LATE 
TONIGHT...MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS ON THE OUTER 
WATERS AS WELL AS NANTUCKET SOUND AND CAPE COD BAY. HAVE PUT UP A 
GALE WATCH FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR THIS 
POSSIBILITY. WAVEWATCH HAS ALSO FORECASTED SEAS UP TO 13 FEET ON THE 
EASTERN OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LEFTOVER SCA CONDS TUE EVENING SHIFT TO HAZARDOUS SEAS SCA WED AND THU
IN THE OUTER WATERS THEN ANOTHER GALE CONDITION POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NWS BOSTON-TAUNTON POINT AND CLICK HAS DELAYS IN UPDATING BY ABOUT 45 
MINUTES- A CONTINUING RECENT PROBLEM. 

TDWR IN THE BOSTON AREA CONTS OTS UFN. 

44020...ANY PROBLEM WITH THIS NANTUCKET SOUND BUOY WILL PROBABLY BE
UPDATED ON ITS MAINTENANCE LINK BY NDBC LATER TODAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR 
     ANZ232-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ232-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ233>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR 
     ANZ231-250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ231.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ251.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR 
     ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/EVT
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...DRAG 518A
AVIATION...DRAG/EVT
MARINE...DRAG/EVT
EQUIPMENT...DRAG

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations

Expanded Version (without abbreviations)