342 
FXUS61 KBOX 240130
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
830 PM EST MON NOV 23 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR CAPE HATTERAS NC AT 8 PM WILL MOVE NE PASSING EAST OF
NANTUCKET TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY. A LARGE GALE SHOULD BE CENTERED NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
FRIDAY...THEN MOVE INTO THE MARITIMES THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
RADAR STP IS MUCH TOO HIGH BUZZARDS BAY SOUTHWARD...OTRW OK IN SNE. 
GOING FCST AS OF 0120Z LOOKS DECENT. 

NORTHEAST WINDS PICK UP A LITTLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS AS COASTAL LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES...BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW
ADVISORY LEVEL.

TEMPS/DEW POINTS ARE A BLEND OF MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL EAST OF NANTUCKET TUESDAY. THIS MOVES THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA...WITH LINGERING
SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER
TROF MOVES ACROSS. THE GFS DRIES OUT THE SUB-850 MB LAYER FAST...BUT
THE NAM HOLDS ONTO THIS MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY...THE GLOBAL STARTS
DRYING OUT THIS LAYER AFTER 18Z. WE HAVE AGREED WITH THE SLOW
CLEARING MOSTLY LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

STIFF GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS TUESDAY
MORNING AND MIDDAY AS THE OFFSHORE LOW MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH.
GFS FORECASTS 950 MB WINDS AT 40-45 KNOTS 12Z TUESDAY WHILE THE NAM
HAS 35 KNOTS AND MUCH LESS FAVORABLE THERMAL PROFILE TO BRING THE
WIND TO THE SURFACE. WILL BRING CAPE/IDS WINDS UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS
BUT KEEP BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL.

SKIES CLEAR TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE AIR MASS DRIES OUT.

TEMPS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT ARE A BLEND OF MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. LEANING MORE TOWARD AN
OPTIMISTIC FORECAST WITH BETTER AGREEMENT AMONGST THE 23/12Z MODELS.
THE UNCERTAINTY COMES IN FROM THE EXACT LOCATION OF THIS HIGH
PRESSURE. IF WE GET TOO MUCH OF AN ONSHORE FLOW WITH THIS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTED NORTH...COULD SEE QUITE A BIT OF MARINE STRATUS
INSTEAD.

THINKING WEDNESDAY...AND AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD BE DRY. A LOW
PRESSURE EXPECTED TO START MOVING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
THURSDAY...SO THINKING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND RISK FOR RAINFALL
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.  

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY POSES ANOTHER PROBLEM...WITH THE GFS
MERGING THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS MERGER RESULTS IN A SIGNIFICANT STORM SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND FOR FRIDAY. DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
DETAILS AT THIS POINT TO SAY MUCH MORE THAN THAT IS THE MOST LIKELY
DAY FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. AS NOTED
BY PREVIOUS SHIFTS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE ENERGETIC
DYNAMICS IN PLACE...BUT AT THIS POINT REMAIN A LOW PROBABILITY.

THINKING THE GFS MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE...BUT THE 23/12Z ECMWF HAS A
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. STAYED CONSERVATIVE WITH THE
WINDS FOR NOW SINCE A LOT OF THINGS HAVE TO HAPPEN FOR THIS SOLUTION
TO PLAY OUT.

THIS STORM MODELED TO DEPART FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE COULD IMPACT US
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CONSTANCY OF ONSHORE FLOW AND LARGE EASTERLY OCEAN SWELLS OF 10 FEET
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN FRIDAY...COULD LEAD TO
SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS EARLY ON...THEN CIGS DETERIORATE TO IFR
THIS EVENING AND REMAIN SO OVERNIGHT. SOME GUSTS TO 30 KTS
ANTICIPATED HYA/FMH/ACK LATE TONIGHT.

TUESDAY...LINGERING IFR CIGS IMPROVE TO MVFR IN THE MORNING. MVFR
VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN AND FOG EARLY. SOME GUSTS TO 30 KTS EARLY AT
HYA/FMH/ACK.

TUE NIGHT...SKY CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR FROM W TO E OVER THE 
COURSE OF THE NIGHT. LOCAL IFR VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG. 

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...VFR EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. PATCHY
IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG POSSIBLE AT NIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN THE RIVER 
VALLEYS.

THURSDAY...VFR TO START. CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR THOUGH THE
DAY...BUT MAINLY AT NIGHT. TIMING OF THIS CHANGE IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRI...INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF IFR CONDS. BRF ENE
G25 KTS POSSIBLE MA COAST.

SATURDAY...IFR CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING TO VFR FROM SOUTHWEST TO 
NORTHEAST. W WIND GUSTS 25-35 KTS ACROSS ALL OF SNE...POSSIBLY HIGHER
VCNTY KACK.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...CAROLINA LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE COAST. SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES A LITTLE. MODELS SHOW 30-35 KNOTS /ECMWF AND NAM/
OR 40-45 KNOTS /GFS/ AT 950 MB...WITHIN RANGE OF BEING BROUGHT TO THE
SURFACE IN A HEAVIER BURST OF RAIN. THIS SHOULD CARRY ENOUGH
POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS...SO WE WILL ISSUE A GALE WARNING FOR
OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND
NANTUCKET SOUND...THE AREAS CLOSEST TO THE TRACK OF THE OFFSHORE LOW.
ALL OTHER ZONES SHOW POTENTIAL FOR 25 KNOT WINDS AND/OR 5 FOOT
SEAS...SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL OTHER WATERS.

WINDS DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT BUT SEAS REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE OUTER
WATERS. THE SCA WILL BE EXTENDED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ROUGH SEAS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS OF MA
AND RI WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS LOW
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE MARITIMES SATURDAY.  GALE FORCE WINDS ARE MORE
LIKELY AT THIS POINT...BUT STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS CANNOT YET BE RULED
OUT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ232-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ231-
     233>235-237-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/BELK 829P
NEAR TERM...WTB/DRAG 829P
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...WTB/DRAG/BELK/NMB 829P
MARINE...WTB/BELK