180

abio10 pgtw 231800
msgid/genadmin/navmarfcstcen Pearl Harbor hi/jtwc//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the Indian
/Ocean/231800z-241800znov2009//
ref/a/msg/navmarfcstcen Pearl Harbor hi/230752znov2009//
ampn/ref a is a tropical cyclone warning.//
Rmks/
1. North Indian Ocean area (Malay Peninsula west to coast of Africa):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) the area of convection previously located near 4.9n 91.6e,
is now located near 5.1n 91.1e, approximately 235 nm west of the
northern tip of Sumatra. Animated infrared satellite imagery
indicates disorganized convection flaring west of an exposed low-
level circulation center (LLCC). A 231511z AMSU image depicts a
defined LLCC with a weak line of deep convection over the west
quadrant. A 230336z ascat pass showed a 20-25 knot system. Upper-
level analysis indicates that the LLCC is located well south of the
subtropical ridge axis and is under moderate, easterly vertical wind
shear. Deep convection is being fueled by diffluent flow aloft.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20 to 25 knots.
Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1004 mb. The
potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone
within the next 24 hours remains poor.
      (2) no other suspect areas.
2. South Indian Ocean area (135e west to coast of Africa):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary:
      (1) at 230600z, tropical cyclone 02s (bongani) was located
near 8.5s 53.6e, approximately 735 nm north-northeast of
Antananarivo Madagascar, and had tracked westward at 06 knots over
the past six hours. Maximum sustained surface winds were estimated
at 40 knots gusting to 50 knots. See ref a (wtxs31 pgtw 230900) for
further details.
      (2) no other tropical cyclones.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.

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