292

abio10 pgtw 061800
msgid/genadmin/navmarfcstcen Pearl Harbor hi/jtwc//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the Indian
/Ocean/061800z-071800znov2009//
rmks/
1. North Indian Ocean area (Malay Peninsula west to coast of Africa):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) the area of convection previously located near 6.7n 78.0e,
is now located near 6.7n 77.5e, approximately 140 nm west of
Colombo, Sri Lanka. Animated infrared imagery shows a broad area of
deep convection slowly consolidating about an ill-defined low level
circulation center (LLCC). Recent scatterometer passes (061322z
Quikscat, 061534z ascat) indicate the LLCC may actually be more to
the northeast, in the vicinity of Sri Lanka. Nevertheless, the
system is located just south of the subtropical ridge axis in an
area of relatively low vertical wind shear with good upper-level
diffluence. Additionally, the environment is forecast to improve as
an approaching upper-level trough digs eastward and enhances the
poleward outflow into the mid-latitude westerlies. Maximum sustained
surface winds are estimated at 20 to 25 knots. Minimum sea level
pressure is estimated to be near 1006 mb. The potential for the
development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24
hours remains fair.
      (2) no other suspect areas.
2. South Indian Ocean area (135e west to coast of Africa):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) the area of convection previously located near 2.2s 74.4e,
is now located near 3.2s 74.5e, approximately 275 nm north-northeast
of Diego Garcia. Animated infrared satellite imagery, in concert
with a 061246z ssmis microwave image, depicts multiple convective
bands loosely wrapping into a defined low level circulation center
(LLCC), positioned to the northeast of the deep convection and
composed of 20- to 25-knot winds (061327z quikscat). The system is
currently in a weak steering environment with moderate vertical wind
shear and marginal upper-level exhaust. AMSU cross sections also
reveal a slight warm-core aloft. Maximum sustained surface winds are
estimated at 20 to 25 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated
to be near 1006 mb. The potential for the development of a
significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains fair.
      (2) no other suspect areas.//

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